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Rayo Vallecano takes on Atletico Madrid at home in a match between two teams that need points like air. Atletico won the home match vs. Rayo 5-0 and looks like a ‘sure bet’ this Sunday but only an analysis will settle if that is the case.
Rayo is second to last in the table and 3 points away from salvation. They got a much needed win in Getafe two rounds ago after 3 consecutive losses, but ended up losing again last week vs. Elche. Rayo is tied for the second worst defense in La Liga and if they do not stop conceding goals, they will surely drop. Against Atletico, it will be a tough task for them for sure to step up defensively. Rayo has a goal difference of 19-47 in 20 rounds. Team news: Adrian, Perea, Baena, Galvez, Carlos – all out. Arbilla and Fernandez are questionable.
Rayo Vallecano lineup: Ruben – Tito, Rodri, Ze Castro, Nacho – Trashorras, Saul – J. Viera, Bueno, Lass – N. Castillo
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Atletico missed a huge chance to move up to the 1st place in the table when they only got a 1-1 draw vs. Sevilla last week. Now after Real won saturday, Atletico is 3rd: 2 points from Real and tied with Barcelona. Of course, Real has one extra game. Atletico was scoring about 3 goals per game in the first part of the season but since the new year they scored only 6 goals in 6 games. A reason for this can be the fact that Diego Costa has lost some of his form and does not look to be the same like in 2013. Atletico Madrid has a goal difference of 48-12 in 20 rounds. Team news: Long term injury Suarez is the only absentee. Tiago is questionable.
Atletico Madrid lineup: Courtois – Manquillo, Miranda, Godin, Filipe – Tiago, Gabi – Koke, Arda Turan – Diego Costa, Villa
Surely this must be the moment when Atletico gets back to their free-scoring ways. They must win this at all cost so they`ll go for it. Rayo has an abysmal defense and will allow chances for sure. On the other hand Rayo can score too. Despite only having 19 goals in 20 matches, Rayo can create chances and they can do it against any side – they proved it against Real for example. They lack the finishing touch, but they are good value to score once today. I reckon we can expect goals and I will choose the over 2,5 goals bet for this encounter. For sure many will pick Atletico to win but I don`t necessarily like that option, especially with handicap. Of course they can win and will probably do it, but I saw Rayo give huge problems to some top sides this year and the price is not worth the risk. The analysis suggests over 2,5 goals for this match and my prediction is Rayo Vallecano – Atletico Madrid 1-2.
Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.79 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.32
Event date: 26 January
Editor Facts
- Ocean lost his last two tips
