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Both teams are outside the relegation zone but still involved in the battle for avoiding the drop, so it’s safe to say this is a massive clash for the configuration of the bottom half of the table. Rayo is currently 3 points behind Celta and would love a win, while the visitors could do with a draw, but know that 3 points would virtually assure them another season in La Liga.
Rayo was on the last place in the standings for a long time, but a string of excellent results in 2014 saw them rising to the 15th place. Prior to last round heavy defeat at Santiago Bernabeu (0-5), Rayo had a 5 match undefeated run, gaining 4 wins and 1 draw. I think it`s fair to say that the hosts deserve to be out of the relegation zone, I watched them a lot of times this season and they always played great, attacking football, but due to horrible defensive efforts they weren`t able to sustain a run of decent results. Vallecano has the worst defense in the league, allowing more than 2 goals per game in average (68), while scoring more than 1 per game (34) themselves. Lately Rayo improved a little bit at the back while also being more effective in front of goal, which was the key for their excellent form.
Just like Rayo, Celta Vigo (11th place) is one of the positive teams in La Liga, playing attacking football and trying to win games (their 34-44 goal difference in 31 rounds is a testament to this). The visitors broke a run of 4 defeats in 5 games with a very important 1-0 success at home to Sevilla last round and another win today would almost guarantee they avoid the drop. Celta is only 6 points clear of the danger zone, but there are a lot of teams between them and the last 3, so that`s why they are relatively safe.
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Team news & lineups
Both sides are pretty much injury free for this clash. Celta actually has no squad problems at all, while Rayo Vallecano has Jose Carlos unavailable, with Galeano and Nery Castillo questionable.
Rayo Vallecano: Martinez – Arbilla, Castro, Galvez, Rat – Niguez, Trashorras – Rochina, Bueno, Falque – Larrivey
Celta Vigo: Yoel – Mallo, Fontas, Lopez, Jonny – Fernandez, Oubina, Rafinha – Nolito, Charles, Orellana
I love the over 2,5 goals bet here. Both sides are offensive minded and poor in defense so we should have a game played mostly on counters with a couple of key defensive errors to show for. Both sides played 2 under 2,5 games in their last 3, so I doubt they will put on yet another low-scoring display considering their attacking DNA. I think the 1×2 result could go either way (though I favor a narrow Rayo win), but I`m very confident that we will have a couple of goals.
Earlier this season the result between the two was 2-0 for Rayo, but this time around my tip is over 2,5 goals to be scored. Also, the odds are higher than they should be for this bet and there`s no surprise they are going down. Prediction: Rayo Vallecano – Celta Vigo 2-1 or 2-2.
Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.93 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.44
Event date: 5 April
