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The first Champions League final between two teams of the same city will see Real Madrid and Atletico square off in Lisbon, Saturday 24 May. Real are the odds-on favorites here, but La Liga champions Atletico have proved time and time again this season that they can upset even the best teams in the world.
Real Madrid was considered by many the best team in the world a couple of weeks ago, and indeed Los Blancos put on some fantastic performances this year, including that amazing 5-0 agg. UCL semifinal win over Bayern. However, they have conceded that invincibility aura when they lost the La Liga title after some poor performances in the last few rounds. Real has just one win in the last 4 matches and will hope to get back in form today in Lisbon – surely they will need their star players to show up if they are to lift the trophy for a record 10th time.
What a season for Diego Simeone’s Atletico. Winning the Spanish title against Barcelona and Real was an incredible achievement and their Champions League campaign was every bit as succesfull – they are the only undefeated team in the competition. Similar to Real, Atletico lost some form late in the season and has not won in 3 games, but the 1-1 draw at Barcelona last week was equivalent with a win, as it got them the La Liga trophy. Despite their progress, Atletico still couldn`t overturn the rivalry with Real in last years. Atleti has just one win in regular time against Los Blancos in the last 30 games (!!!). Indeed, it came earlier this season, but since then they only managed 1 draw and 2 losses against Real in 2014.
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Team news & lineups
Real Madrid has some problems with key players for this game. Xabi Alonso is suspended, while Pepe and Benzema are doubtful. Otherwise, Jese is out and Morata is a question mark. Atletico has an almost fully fit squad but they might start without their best player, Diego Costa. However, considering the importance of the game, probably Pepe, Benzema and Costa will all start.
Real Madrid: Casillas – Carvajal, Sergio Ramos, Pepe, Marcelo – Modric, Khedira, Di Maria – Bale, Ronaldo, Benzema
Atletico Madrid: Courtois – Juanfran, Filipe Luis, Miranda, Godin – Gabi, Turan, Tiago, Koke – Villa – Diego Costa
Listen, Atletico Madrid is one of the best teams in the world right now, they proved it and I am not underestimating them at all even if they lack the same star power of teams like Real. However, I expect Los Blancos to win a tight final here and do it in regular time. Real played the best football in Europe this season and if they are at they best they proved too have too much for Atletico Madrid earlier this year. Cristiano Ronaldo could hardly be more motivated to win this in his home country and he could be the key factor in breaking down Atletico’s defense, their main strength. A very important factor is that Real has this game in mind since two weeks now, while Atletico had an exhausting game against Barcelona last week and the celebrations that followed, so they could end up to be inferior both physically and mentally – though winning the league could also be a morale boost.
All in all Real is the better team here and the inconsistency that lost them the league title should not be an issue in a single legged Champions League final. My tip is Real Madrid to win in regular time but I will take them with a 0,25 asian handicap just as a little precautionary measure. The under also looks like a decent bet but the odds are rather low. Prediction: Real Madrid – Atletico Madrid 1-0.
Pick: Real Madrid (-0,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.79 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.11
Event date: 24 May
