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Real Madrid hosts Atletico Madrid in a massive Champions League quarterfinal at Bernabeu.
Real did not play bad at all in the first leg … very good football in the second half, ok football in the first part of the second half and not so good football in the end. Overall they deserved a win, but could not break the Diego Simeone wall. Real is in pretty good form lately, winning 4 of the last 5 games … but the performances were not always the best. For this game Carlo Ancelotti has some serious injury problems: Modric, Marcelo, Bale are unavailable. Coentrao and Benzema are questionable but at least Benzema will be in the starting lineup.
Missing Modric will be a big problem because this season he has been instrumental for Real. When he was out a couple of months ago, Real was in crisis. When he was substituted vs. Barcelona in El Clasico, Real’s level instantly dropped. Bale, of course, another huge absence … even if his form was not top recently.
Real Madrid projected lineup:
Casillas – Carvajal, Ramos, Pepe, Coentrao – Kroos, Illaramendi, Isco – Ronaldo, Benzema, James
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Atletico is not playing the best possible football at the moment, but they are still that rugged, hard to beat team. Visitors are undefeated in 10 matches … and I think they are happy with the 0-0 result in the first leg. They can play their favorite brand of football now, conceding possession and waiting to hit on counterattacks – Simeone’s trademark. Team news for Atletico say that Mario Suarez (suspended) is the only absentee … so Diego Simeone can field his best lineup at Bernabeu.
Atletico Madrid projected lineup:
Oblak – Juanfran, Godin, Miranda, Siqueira – Koke, Gabi, Tiago, Arda – Mandzukic, Griezmann
I think the absences of Bale and Modric (Marcelo as well) will be too much for Real to cope with. Their recent Head 2 Head vs. Atletico is horrible … 7 matches without a win … and it is not just a fluke. Diego Simeone knows how to play against Real and after the 0-0 in the first leg he can used his preferred approach at Bernabeu. Expect the hosts to control the ball, but the pragmatic Atletico will score at one point on the counterattack.
My tip will be Atletico Madrid to qualify … much higher odds than the +0,5 handicap, so a better value investment than the x2. Correct score prediction: Real Madrid – Atletico Madrid 1-1.
Pick: Atletico to qualify
Odds: 2.42 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 11.36
Event date: 22 April
