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Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid will square off yet again in the Champions League, this time in the semifinals of the competition. Real Madrid is a solid 1.80 odds favorite to win the first leg at home.
The hosts are on a good run recently, although they did lose to Barcelona at home last weekend, helping Barca back into the title race. They bounced back with two wins against La Coruna (6-2) and Valencia (2-1). The victory against Valencia wasn`t impressive, especially as Real didn`t rest players, but overall Zidane’s team is looking good over the last couple of months.
Atletico also opted to field their strongest available side over the weekend, but they were more impressive than Real, dismantling Las Palmas 5-0 on the road. Atletico has played well in recent years at Bernabeu, but they will need to be better than they were in the quarterfinals against Leicester – when they won 1-0 at home due to a bogus penalty, and were seriously outplayed in the 2nd half of the second leg (1-1).
Bet on Real Madrid vs Atletico and get your 100% (100 Eur) bonus at Ohmbet now!Team news & lineups:
Bale and Pepe continue to be unavailable for Real Madrid. Atletico has serious problems in the right back position. Their two right backs, Juanfran and Gimenez, are unavailable. What`s worse, the probable third option (Vrsaljko) is also out. It will be interesting to see what kind of improvisation will Simeone make.
Real Madrid: Navas – Carvajal, Ramos, Varane, Marcelo – Kroos, Casemiro, Modric – Isco, Benzema, Ronaldo
Atletico Madrid: Oblak – Partey (Hernandez), Godin, Savic, Luis – Niguez, Gabi, Koke – Carrasco, Gameiro, Griezmann
7 of the last 8 H2H meetings between Real and Atletico Madrid finished with under 2.5 goals. I believe that will be the case again, and betting against goals actually provides some excellent odds as well.
Real Madrid is scoring for fun lately, but their defense has been dirt poor and they haven`t kept a clean sheet since April 2nd. 15 of Real`s last 16 matches ended with over 2.5 goals. However, the one that didn`t was against Atletico Madrid, a 1-1 draw at Bernabeu which was never in “danger” of seeing more than 2 goals.
Real will know that if they allow a goal at home, qualification could become very difficult, as it`s really difficult to score against Atleti. The hosts don`t want to travel to Vicente Calderon for the second leg needing multiple goals to qualify, so expect them to put more focus on defense than they usually do.
The fact that Altetico misses its top 3 options at right back might actually be an argument in favor of a low scoring game. They will either field a center back there, which will weaken their wing offense, and / or they will purposely be more cautious, knowing Ronaldo will expose them there if he is given any space. Carrasco will probably have extra defensive duties on the right wing, which will probably decrease his offensive impact, as he`s not 100% fit.
Atletico can drag anybody down to their level, they already did that this Champions League season with another team which was averaging tons of goals (Bayern Munchen in the group stage, 1-0, 0-1). Real`s goalscoring numbers are impressive but I believe they will count for nothing in a match against Atletico, in the Champions League semifinals, when so much is at stake.
My tip is under 2,5 goals to be scored. Prediction: Real Madrid – Atletico Madrid 1-0.
Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.87 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.96
Event date: 2 May
