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The most anticipated Champions League semifinal will see Real Madrid host Bayern Munchen at Santiago Bernabeu, with the Spaniards as the slight favorites to get the win going into the second leg.
Real Madrid has clearly increased its level in the last couple of wins, as the team put together a string of 5 wins in 6 games (scoring for fun), including a 2-1 victory over Barcelona in the Copa del Rey final just 1 week ago – and that was without Cristiano Ronaldo, who has good chances to play today, but with an amazing goal from Garreth Bale. The only hiccup was that horrible 2-0 loss at Dortmund, but, even though it`s still fresh and worrying, it can be labeled as an accident based on lack of focus after the 3-0 win in the first leg against the germans. Morale is surely at an all time high for Real after the win against their biggest rivals, and Los Blancos will look to use this to their advantage in tonight`s encounter.
Guardiola’s Bayern is in somewhat of a crisis right now. After winning the league with a couple of rounds to spare, the Bavarians started playing worse and worse. They got a less than impressive qualification over Manchester United in the Champions League quarterfinals, drew with Hoffenheim, lost to Augsburg and were dismantled 3-0 at home by Borussia Dortmund. Bayern recovered in the last two matches to win against Kaiserlautern in the cup and against Braunschweig over the weekend, but the opponents were really poor.
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Team news & lineups
Ronaldo is doubtful for Real and he might start on the bench, but will probably play at least in the second half. Marcelo is also questionable, while Arbeola, Jese and Khedira are definitely out. Bayern has serious squad problems before this game. Aside from Alcantara, Starke, Shaqiri, van Buyten and Badstubber (all out), the bavarians have injury doubts over Martinez, Muller and Alabra.
Real Madrid: Casillas – Carvajal, Pepe, Ramos, Coentrao – Alonso, Modric – Di Maria, Bale, Ronaldo – Benzema
Bayern Munchen: Neuer – Rafinha, Dante, Boateng, Alaba – Lahm, Schweinsteiger – Kroos, Robben, Ribery – Mandzukic
Real Madrid seems like the team to beat here considering the recent form of the two teams and the home court advantage. Los Blancos won no less than 20 of their last 21 home games, with the only defeat coming at the hands of Barcelona (3-4) exactly one month ago. Ronaldo coming back should give the hosts a big boost and they should be able to at least get a slim advantage going into the second leg. Bayern might still be the best team in Europe but they are having some problems right now and couldn`t ask for a more difficult game. My tip is Real Madrid to win with -0,25 handicap at what I consider to be excellent odds. Prediction: Real Madrid – Bayern Munchen 2-1.
Pick: Real Madrid (-0,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.22 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 8.54
Event date: 23 April
