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After the 6-1 destruction in the first leg Real Madrid is assured of qualification and can play this game a little more relaxed before the El Clasico with Barcelona on Sunday. Schalke will hope to erase some of the shame from the game in Germany.
Real Madrid is probably the most in-form team in Europe at the moment. In the last 21 games they have 19 wins and 2 draws – both on the road against good teams: Athletic Bilbao on 2 February and Atletico Madrid on 2 March. Los Blancos won 1-0 the away game at Malaga in the weekend and have a very important game vs. Barcelona the coming weekend so with the 6-1 advantage maybe they will not be 100% focused vs. Schalke. The first game was a total domination for Real who created chances at will against a horrendous defense of Schalke. Team news for Real Madrid for this game say Khedira and Arbeola are injured and also Benzema will probably not play. Ancelotti will make a couple of changes to the first 11 but overall he will field something close to the best lineup available.
Real Madrid lineup: Casillas – Nacho, Ramos, Varane, Coentrao – Illarramendi, Alonso, Isco – Ronaldo, Jese, Morata
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Schalke was riding some great form before succumbing to that horrible 1-6 defeat to Real and they “backed up” the result just a couple of days later losing 5-1 to Bayern proving they can’t take on the top guys in Europe at the moment (after also getting heavily beaten by Chelsea in the group stage). Schalke has a very poor defense and big teams can easily break them down. But after the two games against real and Bayern, Schalke came back to win 4-0 vs. Hoffenheim and 2-1 in a tough away game at Augsburg – showing some very good defensive effort – actually in 2014 Schalke showed vast improvements at the back – allowing 3 goals in 7 matches aside from the two games mentioned earlier. Team news for Schalke are again pretty bad: Kirchhoff, Hoger, Aogo, Clemens and Fuchs are out, Uchida is doubtfull and Farfan is questionable also but has minimum chances to play.
Schalke 04 lineup: Fahrmann – Hoogland, Howedes, Kolasinac, Matip – Neustadter, Goretzka – Draxler, Boateng, Meyer – Huntelaar
I do not think Real Madrid will put too much in this game. For sure they will play professionally but they can-t be expected to chase goals like in the first leg with qualification assured and Barcelona coming at Bernabeu in a few days. Team selection will also taking something away from Real’s power especially up front – Jese and Morata might be good players but all in all they are not Bale, Di Maria or Benzema. Regarding Schalke, they might not be a top european team right now but they are not rubbish either and will fight their hearts out to change the impression left in the first game – and their improving defense might look better than in the first leg. Also I do not think Schalke will play so freely as people are expecting – they would more likely try to be solid at the back and not concede too much.
Considering this analysis I believe that odds of almost evens for the under 3,5 goals bet are way too high and unjustified. Real will probably play it safe and something like 2 goals should be more than enough for them; Schalke I don’t think has the power to score, Real only allowed 2 goals at home in the last 10 matches – and they were both in the same game vs. Villarreal, so 9 clean sheets. My tip is under 3,5 goals. Might not look like the classical big stakes bet but I think the value in these odds is just too big to pass up so I’ll take the risk. My correct score prediction: Real Madrid – Schalke 2-0.
Pick: under 3,5 goals
Odds: 1.97 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.73
Event date: 18 March
