Reims (9th place) will hope to continue their overachieving run in Ligue 1 by winning against an Ajaccio team (19th place) that can’t get a win to save their lives. I feel the game is very interesting betting-wise and presents a good opportunity for profit.
Looking at the way Reims is playing, their current standing is no fluke and they deserve it 100%. Very good gameplan for the hosts, excellent cohesion, they were even able to dominate sides like Monaco this season. Their 3-3-2 record at home is not so impressive, but they looked dominant almost everytime on their own pitch and were a little unlucky not to get even better results. Reims is in very good form with 2 wins and 1 draw in the last three games. Reims has some squad problems for this game: Krychowiak and de Preville questionable, Courter, Tacalfred, Conte and Diego out. But Reims is used to not having the best squad available and even without many players they have managed to play great.
Reims lineup: Agassa – Mandi, Weber, Fofana, Signorino – Devaux – Ayite, Albaek, Oniangue, Turan – Charbonnier
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Ajaccio made some big transfers last season including GK Ochoa and striker Adrian Mutu and they confortably avoided relegation, but more was expected for the team. This season Ravanelli took charge but things went downhill and even after his dismissal the team did not recover. Ajaccio has only 9 points in 18 rounds, is second to last in the table and lost 9 out of the last 11 games! Away from home they are 0-3-5 with no wins. Ajaccio pretty much forfeited the big investment plan and is confortable with the probable relegation of the team, one proof being the offload of Adrian Mutu. At the moment the team is totally out of sorts tactically, form-wise and with an all time low morale. Ajaccio with Goncalves doubtful + Mutu, Pedretti, Tallo, Zubar out.
Ajaccio lineup: Ochoa – Hengbart, Perozo, Tonucci, Bonnart – Faty, Mostefa, Lasne – Cavalli – Eduardo, Oliech
Reims at odds ~1.70 will always be looked as a low-value bet (odds are rising a little bit) but I actually think there is much value in these odds. Reims is a solid team and they couldn`t ask for a better matchup against a team that lacks exactly the things that Reims has: tactical consistency, morale, cohesion. Add to this the huge form difference and home court advantage and Reims should easily take this game. I can see them holding the ball and exploiting the usual errors by the Ajaccio defense, while the visitors don`t pose much offensive threat. I am thinking that they might even cover the handicap but I will be satisfied by picking a simple win for safety – at very good odds in my opinion as I do not feel Reims should be priced over 1.60 considering the facts. My tip for this League 1 game is Reims – Ajaccio 2-0.
Pick: Reims
Odds: 1.71 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.68
Event date: 21 December
Editor Facts
- This is Ocean’s first pick on either Reims or Ajaccio this season