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Renzo Olivo and Vitaliy Sachko will meet in the opening round at the Campinas challenger in Brazil. The match will be played on Tuesday, weather permitting, as it will be rainy these days in that particular part of the world.
Olivo (217 ATP) hasn’t had much success lately, losing 5 of his last 7 matches, his sole wins coming against Jelle Sells at the Guayaquil challenger and against Jorge Panta last week in Lima – both players well outside the Top 300. He did manage to push Carballes Baena to a deciding set in the second round last week in Lima, suggesting he may be finding some form, but he still lost that match and even got bageled in a set.
The 23 year old Sachko (400 ATP) is playing some of the best tennis of his life right now. The Ukrainian managed to qualify for the main draw in Vienna a month ago, as a lucky loser, but with a win over Herbert in the qualies (as a 11.00 underdog!). In the first round there he looked really good against Dominic Thiem, losing in two tight sets. Following a three week break, Sachko entered the qualifiers at the Lima challenger last week and he picked up from where he left off, reaching the semifinals, beating some good, in form players – most notably Bagnis. He lost in the semifinals against Tirante, who was red hot at that moment.
This will be the first meeting between the two players. Olivo is a bit more accomplished on clay, but Sachko feels just fine on the surface too. Both have played last week in South America, so both should be comfortable with the conditions. Humidity is expected to be high, but I don’t see that influencing the matchup.
I watched a few of Sachko’s matches last week in Lima and he looked sharp, also showing great composure and mental strength in a few important moments. His win over Bagnis was particularly impressive, as Bagnis was riding a 7 match winning streak and was priced below 1.20 to win that match.
The fact that Sachko played well in Vienna too at the end of October suggests he is in a good place, playing consistently well over a longer period of time. That means we should reasonably expect him to continue in the same way in Campinas.
Olivo is the more recognisable name here, particularly on the South American clay, but Sachko is the player in form and he looked reliable lately, eager to make a name for himself. Last week he has beaten clay courters who are similar with Olivo, but better.
Odds on the Ukrainean are dropping and I can see why. I’m backing him early to win this match with medium-high stakes of 7/10. Prediction: Renzo Olivo – Vitaliy Sachko 6-2 5-7 2-6.
Pick: Sachko
Odds: 1.77 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 5.39
Event date: 1 December
