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After three days of heavy rain, it looks like Wednesday’s weather will allow matches to be played for most of the day at Roland Garros, as there are no signs of rain. Richard Gasquet and Andy Murray will definitely be happy to get their quarterfinal match finally started.
Gasquet had a brilliant tournament so far and it honestly came a bit out of nowhere. He didn`t have a great year, had injury problems and didn`t look that great on clay before Paris. What`s more, he never reached a Roland Garros quarterfinal prior to this year. Nevertheless, Richard hit top form at the right time and he played some stellar tennis in the past 10 days. Not only did he lose a single set, but he shattered his opposition, including the likes of Kyrgios (6-2 7-6 6-2) and Nishikori (6-4 6-2 4-6 6-2).
Murray came to Paris after two finals in a row against Djokovic, in which he looked very competitive – losing a tight three setter in Madrid and following that up with a clear victory in Rome. However, Andy had a shockingly difficult start at Roland Garros, playing 5 sets in each of those first two rounds, against Stepanek and Bourgue, trailing 0-2 and 1-2 respectively to those players. He found a way to win though and went on to win in straight sets over Karlovic and Isner, but Gasquet will be by far his toughest test yet.
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Murray leads the Head 2 Head 7-3 (2-1 on clay), but it`s impossible to say he holds a matchup advantage over Richard. Andy is the better player and it`s normal for him to dominate the H2H, but Gasquet took 3 matches off him and was very competitive in all losses. Only 2 of the 10 Head 2 Head matches ended in straight sets.
Murray always insisted that clay is his favorite surface, despite playing very poorly on the red dirt for most of his career. However, in the last few years we finally understood why Andy likes clay so much and particularly this season he was fantastic on it. He was (and still is) considered the main rival for Djokovic in Paris, even though his shaky form so far is not exactly Roland Garros winning material.
One scare in the early rounds is nothing to worry about, but Andy had two huge scares in a row against two of the least dangerous opponents on the main draw and he did not prove himself in the next rounds either – even though he vastly improved, he also benefited from the fact that he met two big servers and did just enough to win in straight sets.
Still, you have to expect Murray to play better today and his defense should eventually get the better of Gasquet. Problem is, he needs nothing less than his A game against this version of Gasquet. Richard gave Murray a lot of tough fights over the years and might win this match if Andy is not at his best. But even with Murray stepping it up, you have to feel that Gasquet in this kind of form will snatch at least a set (as he did in 9 of the 10 H2H meetings) – and that would likely be enough to cover the under / over line, which is pretty low.
All in all my tip is over 37 games to be played and hopefully Gasquet will not crack under pressure. Prediction: Richard Gasquet – Andy Murray 6-4 4-6 6-2 6-7 3-6.
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Pick: over 37 games
Odds: 1.75 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 5.25
Event date: 1 June
