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High profile encounter in the 3rd round at Roland Garros between two quality players, but I will say from the start that I fancy the odds on Gasquet a lot, and while I do understand why the bookies are giving credit to Verdasco, I don`t agree with the logic behind that decision.
Gasquet (13 ATP) is the more stable player between the two for a long time now and started the season pretty good, but he suffered an injury in Miami and has not played since. There were a lot of question marks over Richard’s fitness prior to Roland Garros, but he quickly dismissed them with two convincing 3 set wins against Tomic and Berlocq – the latter being especially impressive against a fine clay courter like Carlos. It seems that Gasquet took his time to prepare for this tournament and even if he did not play on clay this season, he adjusted quickly and is showing some great tennis.
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Verdasco (25 ATP) is struggling for a couple of years to find his best level of play, but it looks more and more clear that he will not be able to play like he used to anymore. He is just too inconsistent. Nevertheless, Fernando did have a good start to this season, including winning the Houston title on clay against Almagro. But after moving to the european red dirt, Verdasco could not replicate the performance at Houston and ended up losing 3 of his next 5 matches, including defeats to Bautista Agut (Madrid) and Andrey Golubev (Rome). After beating Llodra 6-2 7-6 7-6 in the Roland Garros opener, Nando had big problems in the second round against Pablo Cuevas, having to overcome a 2-0 deficit in order to win in an almost 4 hour marathon – making 54 unforced errors along the way.
The H2H is 7-6 for Verdasco and the spaniard won the last meeting just a couple of months ago in Indian Wells (7-6 6-1). However, Gasquet leads the H2H 4-3 on clay.
There are two things and two things only working for Verdasco here: his win against Richard earlier this season and the fact that Gasquet is back after 2 and a half months of inactivity – that`s why the odds are so close. The previous meeting must be taken as it is, Verdasco was the better player on the day, no doubt about that. Gasquet’s break however is irrelevant considering the level of tennis he showed in the first two rounds at RG, especially against Berlocq. Otherwise, the frenchman is the better player, plays at home and looked in better shape than Verdasco so far in this tournament. Fernando’s 4 hour match against Cuevas will probably take a tall on him today and not only do I see him losing, I can’t see him pushing this to 5 sets either. If he`ll proceed to make more than 10 unforced errors per set again, this could end quickly. My tip is Gasquet to win with 1,5 set handicap. Prediction: Richard Gasquet – Fernando Verdasco 6-3 3-6 7-5 6-2.
Pick: Gasquet (-1,5 set handicap)
Odds: 2.53 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 12.24
Event date: 1 June
