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Richard Gasquet and Nicolas Almagro will square off in the quarterfinals at Estoril, one of the most intriguing clashes we could ever see in a QF of an ATP 250 tournament.
Gasquet started the season in decent shape, but he had to take a 6 week break after a back injury suffered at Indian Wells. The Frenchman came back strong here in Estoril and recorded two straight set wins over Matosevic and De Schepper. Pretty good tennis by Richard Gasquet, but the opponents were quite irrelevant, with both Matosevic and De Schepper being non factors on clay. Gasquet stated that he still thinks about the injury, but that he`s feeling well, has no pain and is happy with the way he’s playing right now.
Almagro is back after his own injury problems, though his foot injury was much tougher than Gasquet’s back problems. Almagro didn’t play after Roland Garros last season and came back in 2015 with mediocre results at best. His only decent tournament was in Buenos Aires, where he reached the semifinals, but otherwise few things went right for Nicolas, who was posting a 9-8 win-loss record before Estoril and was on the back of a heavy beating in Barcelona at the hands of Nadal. Almagro defeated Robert and L. Mayer in straight sets this week, looking pretty good, playing some of the best tennis he played since coming back from injury.
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Almagro leads the Head 2 Head 3-2 (2-0 on clay), but Gasquet won the last two meetings and the score in sets is just 7-6 for Nicolas. The surface does favor the Spaniard a bit (the last Head 2 Head clay meeting was in 2010), but in terms of styles it can’t be said that any player holds a matchup advantage.
Both players have struggled with injuries lately but you have to feel Gasquet is in much better shape after missing just 6 weeks, as opposed to the 7 month break of Almagro. Gasquet was playing at a good level before the injury, winning the title in Montpellier, while Almagro struggled all year to produce results. With both guys playing good tennis this week, you have to wonder how can the bookies view Almagro as a favorite – even if he is a little bit better suited for clay than Gasquet and played well this week. It’s an evenly matched encounter, with the Frenchman having the first chance, as he’s the better player in much better long term form.
I expect Gasquet to win, but for a safer approach I am choosing the +2 game handicap – it should be a tight match, possibly three sets and there is a real possibility of this handicap (small as it is) being covered by Richard even if he somehow loses. My tip is Gasquet +2 game handicap. Prediction: Richard Gasquet – Nicolas Almagro 4-6 6-3 6-4.
Live streaming for Gasquet vs. Almagro available for all players at Bet365.com.
Pick: Gasquet +2 game handicap
Odds: 1.92 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.36
Event date: 1 May
