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Richard Gasquet takes on countryman Paul-Henri Mathieu in the final of ATP Montpellier, played on indoor hard, a pretty fast surface actually.
Montpellier is the first tournament of the year for Gasquet, as he got injured late last season in the International Premier Tennis League, but the frenchman looked sharp right from the first match and played better and better with each round. Richard defeated Baghdatis and Gulbis in straight sets before pulling off a wonder 2-1 win against the red hot Dustin Brown.
Gasquet’s semifinal 1-6 6-4 6-3 win against Brown was one of the most impressive victories I have ever seen. Brown was leading 6-1 3-0, playing absolutely incredible tennis – simply jaw dropping stuff, irresistible tennis, pulverizing Gasquet with insane power shots over and over again. Not even in his Wimbledon win against Nadal last year did he play this well, actually not even close. You could hear the murmur in the crowd and see Gasquet smiling, letting you wonder if even Djokovic would have an answer for what Brown was playing.
Gasquet did exactly the only thing that he could have done: he fought like crazy to hang on, keep himself animated and when the opportunity came, he capitalized. He used all his weapons and experience to slowly get Brown out of rhythm, eventually turning around the match, despite the fact that Dustin was still playing well. It was a masterclass exhibit of quality, experience and mental strength for Gasquet, as I`m sure only 5-10 players in the world could have turned that match around. Most Top 100 guys would have likely lost that match with a 6-1 6-1 scoreline.
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Paul-Henri Mathieu wasn`t playing well at all prior to Montpellier, but he put together a beautiful surprise run to reach the final here. Currently 93rd in the world, Paul-Henri lost just one set in his 4 matches and showed us some of that nice, technical tennis he used to play before all of his injuries. However, it has to be said that his run was greatly facilitated by the draw, which was really accessible: Ymer, Paire, Milman and A. Zverev. Paire was way off his game, while Milman and Zverev played very close matches with Mathieu.
Gasquet leads the Head 2 Head 5-2, but the only meeting in the last 5 years took place in 2014. Coincidentally, it was here in Montpellier and Gasquet won 6-1 6-3.
Gasquet has played some of the best tennis in this tournament (second only to Dustin Brown) and after that superb fightback in the semifinals, I doubt he will give Mathieu any chances. Richard will come into this match with incredible confidence and honestly that’s the only things he needs, as the quality difference is pretty high and Mathieu doesn’t even have the proper style to trouble his countryman.
Credit to Paul-Henri Mathieu for reaching the final, but truth is he hasn’t been playing extraordinary tennis and he was pretty fortunate to have an easy draw. I expect Gasquet to dominate this from the start, winning in two sets. A difference of one break per set seems likely, so my tip is Gasquet to win and cover the 4 game asian handicap. I would have gone 10 units if it weren’t for my Ireland – Wales bet, but I will still invest a high stake of 9 units on the tip. Prediction: Richard Gasquet – Paul-Henri Mathieu 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Gasquet -4 games
Odds: 1.95 @ 1xBet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.55
Event date: 7 February
