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Richard Gasquet will face his nemesis, Roger Federer, in the quarterfinals at the Shanghai Open.
Gasquet had a rather mediocre season so far in 2017, and he didn`t particularly improve here in Shanghai. Sure, Gasquet played well to reach the quarterfinals, but nothing special. He lost a set in each of his three matches (Haase, Chung, Simon), none of them being very dangerous opponents. Haase and Chung are obviously below Gasquet’s level, while Simon is in poor form and reached the 3rd round just because he was lucky to meet an exhausted Goffin earlier.
Federer came back this week after not playing since the US Open (not including the Laver Cup exhibition), and he found his optimal level of play right away. Fed controlled his first round match against Schwartzman and could have won easier than 7-6 6-4, while in the next round he played even better, easily dispatching Dolgopolov 6-4 6-2. The Swiss seems rested and fit, ready to make a final push for the No.1 spot – although that seems unlikely given Nadal’s recent form.
Bet on Gasquet vs Federer and claim your 100% (100 Eur) freebet at Ohmbet now!Federer leads the H2H 16-2 (9-0 on hard), utterly dominating Gasquet over the years. In the last 7 matches, Gasquet did not win a set, losing all of them 6-4 or less! On hard courts, Fed lost a single set in 9 meetings. Again, Gasquet couldn`t even reach a tiebreak in the other 18 sets on hard.
The stats above are telling, and reflect the massive matchup advantage which Federer holds over Gasquet. The Frenchman just doesn`t have the style to create problems for the Swiss.
If Gasquet is to have a chance in a match against Roger, he needs to be in top form, Federer must be a bit off his game, and the surface also has to give Richard an edge. Not one of these factors exist ahead of this clash. Gasquet reached the quarters rather circumstantially, he`s playing Ok but not great, while Fed had shown a very high level of tennis.
I find it hard to believe that a Gasquet in mediocre form can get past the matchup disadvantage against an in form Federer, on one of Federer’s favorite surfaces on tour – the Swiss always loves to play on these fast courts in Shanghai. I expected odds for a straight sets Federer win to be around 1.30 – 1.35, so I`m more than happy to invest high stakes on the current price of 1.40 – 1.45. It might seem low, but I think there`s actually value in it.
My tip on this clash is Roger Federer to win in straight sets. Obviously anything can happen in sports, but any logical analysis suggests Fed should have an easy one here. I find it hard to produce a single argument working in Gasquet`s favor, so I will make a solid investment of 9 units on this bet. Prediction: Richard Gasquet – Roger Federer 3-6 4-6.
Pick: Federer -1,5 set handicap
Odds: 1.46 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 4.14
Event date: 13 October
