Gasquet – Groth

Top seed Richard Gasquet will meet one of the in-form players on the ATP tour, Samuel Groth, in the Bogota 2nd round.

Gasquet’s decision to come here in Colombia to play an ATP 250 tournament was surprising, considering that there is an ATP 500 tournament currently held in Hamburg. Probably Richard is looking for some preparation on hard, knowing that he did not play well this year, especially lately. Gasquet basically skipped the clay season alltogether, playing just Roland Garros, where he exited in the 3rd round with a big loss at Verdasco. He went on to play a final on grass at Eastbourne (lost to Lopez) but had overall disappointing results on the green, losing to Haase in the Halle first round and to Kyrgios in the Wimbledon 2nd round. At the moment Gasquet is trying to regain his level of play and will also hope to get back at 100% fitness wise, after he had to miss 2 months due to injury before Roland Garros – though he did look fit in Wimbledon, but also looked tired at the end of the Kyrgios match.

Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle.

I talked about Groth a lot recently, I’ll say the same things today: emerging player, found consistency in his tennis lately and has a colossal serve + good volley. He is in very good form and had an excellent grass court season for his standards, including a semifinal at Newport, lost to Karlovic. The Australian had a very peculiar match against doubles player Cabal in the first round. Groth took control early and was serving for the match at 6-3 5-4, when suddenly Cabal got his first break point of the match and ended up pushing the match into a deciding set tiebreak. Groth missed multiple set points in the second set and probably lack of experience made him a little bit tight and winning the hard way a very accessible match.

The H2H is 0-0, it will be the first meeting between the two. Both like to play on hard and have different styles, Gasquet is not too good when playing big servers but I wouldn’t put too much emphasys on that, it`s not like his struggling big time.

Listen, as I said I analyzed a lot of Groth’s matches recently and I have to admit I did not have the expected results, but I`m confident I`m making a solid value bet here. I expect Groth to stand a chance of winning this match. Sure, Gasquet is the better player and if he will be at his best he will win, but that’s a big “If”. Somehow I can’t see a Gasquet struggling with form and fitness coming in South America to play an ATP 250 tournament and be fully focused. There`s a high chance that Richard will be satisfied playing 1 match here, trying some shots and evaluating his fitness level. When you take into account that Groth is in good form and has that big serve as an important weapon, he is set to capitalize if Gasquet will not play at his best level of tennis (or at least close). No way the frenchman has over 80% chances to win this. My tip is Groth to win, the odds surely have value, but of course I will keep the stakes low on this bet. I will not recommend handicaps, Gasquet can win big if he plays his best tennis, I`m going with the best value. Prediction: Richard Gasquet – Samuel Groth 6-7 6-7.

Pick: Samuel Groth
Odds: 5.72 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 3
Possible profit: 14.16
Event date: 17 July