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France and Czech Republic meet in the Davis Cup semifinals, with Gasquet and Berdych set to play the first match of the tie in the morning / early afternoon. The surface in France will be indoor clay.
Gasquet has struggled with his tennis all year, dropping out of the top 20, but especially in the last few months he has been particularly poor. The Frenchman is on the back of a 3rd round exit at US Open, being demolished by Monfils, and I am actually very surprised that he has been selected to start by Guy Forget, as Monfils or even Gilles Simon seemed better options. Probably the captain is going with experience, but the fact is that Gasquet is making a lot of errors right now, his serve is not working well and he has been consistently weak all season – Richard did not defeat a single Top 10 player in 2014.
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Berdych is not in the best shape himself, he played poorly since a couple of months ago, when the clay court season started. Often looking less dominant and having less power than in the past, Tomas still managed to get some good results like quarterfinal showings at Roland Garros and US Open. While he`s struggling a bit with his tennis, he is still managing to grind out some good wins and get some decent results.
Gasquet has an important advantage in the H2H department, leading 5-3 (4-2 on hard) and winning the last encounter last year. The surface here suits both players just fine, actually Berdych might be the one who likes indoor clay better, so no advantage for the hosts.
Neither player is in top form or playing their best tennis, but Berdych has been sharper this year and in the last few months as well. He is on the back of a much better performance than Gasquet at the US Open and should be able to overcome the H2H disadvantage and win this. Look for the French player to make more errors and lose in 4 sets. My tip is Berdych to win and cover a 1,5 set handicap as well, and the odds are pretty good at Unibet for this pick. Another argument for this bet might be that this is a huge game for the Czech Republic – if they lose it, the Davis Cup tie is as good as finished, so Tomas really must win, his focus will be trough the roof. Prediction: Richard Gasquet – Tomas Berdych 6-7 7-5 3-6 4-6.
Pick: Berdych (-1,5 handicap)
Odds: 2.38 @ Unibet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 9.66
Event date: 12 September
