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Richard Gasquet and Vasek Pospisil will meet for the second time in 4 days in one of the highlights of the Rogers Cup (ATP Toronto Masters) first round. Pospisil defeated Gasquet on Saturday in the Washington semifinals in three tight sets. Richard is a -2,5 game handicap favorite today.
Gasquet struggled with form all year, almost dropping out of the top 15. Especially lately he recorded results like a 2nd round exit at Wimbledon or a loss to Estrella at Bogota. However, Richard seemed to regain his best level of tennis last week, when he made a run to the semis at Washington, blowing out every opponent along the way, but he ended up losing 7-6 3-6 5-7 against today`s opponent, Vasek Pospisil. It was an encouraging result but Richard will feel he should have at least reached the final considering his form and it remains to be seen if the inconsistent frenchman can retain the same (or better) level of tennis this week. He did show some weaknesses in the unforced error department in Washington, so he`s still not feeling 100% fit and confident.
The Canadian had an absolutely dreadful run in the last couple of months, barely managing to win 1-2 matches here and there, but he was always expected to improve on the US hard court series and he did exactly that in Washington last week. Pospisil suddenly found his top level of tennis to defeat the likes of Giraldo (in form) and Gasquet (in form), also he destroyed Berdych in the 3rd round (who actually played very well). Vasek went on to lose heavily to Raonic in the final, he was a little off-pace but it must be noted that Raonic played unbelievable tennis, I don`t know if anyone aside of Rafael Nadal would have beaten him on that day. One might say that Pospisil is tired after the Washington final, but after all he played only 1 and a half hour more than Gasquet and he is surely pumped up here in Toronto to defend his points and do well at home. Vasek emerged here last year with a semifinal showing (with the tournament being held at Montreal), so a first round exit would be a disaster for him.
Pospisil leads the H2H 2-0, both meetings were on hard courts. Besides the win last week at Washington he also defeated Gasquet in 2 sets last year at Shanghai. I won`t say that Vasek has a matchup advantage over Richard, the 2-0 H2H does not clearly indicate that, but obviously he knows how to play him and in the right conditions he can defeat the frenchman.
The bookmakers set some very high odds for Pospisil here and I`m not surprised they are dropping. Listen, Gasquet had a solid tournament last week, but there are still a lot of question marks about him? Is he really in form or will he show his famous inconsistency this week? Can he keep up this level? Can he improve? Is he 100% fit? Meanwhile, we know that Pospisil just defeated Gasquet when the frenchman was in his best form in months, we know Pospisil can play, we know he feels good in this period and we know that he is super motivated to do well at home, also having a lot of points to defend and the H2H works in his favor as well. I am happy to pick the facts over the question marks and I am willing to take a calculated risk at this kind of odds. The risk consists in Gasquet coming up with his absolute best level of tennis (which would not guarantee his win), or with Pospisil collapsing after the Washington final (very unlikely in the currect circumstances).
My tip is Pospisil to win his ATP Toronto opener. I wouldn`t touch handicaps, in the wrong circumstances Gasquet can win this, the handicap is low, so the value bet is the right choice. I rate Pospisil’s chances at a little over 50% in this match so I will take the calculated risk with high stakes. Prediction: Richard Gasquet – Vasek Pospisil 6-4 5-7 4-6.
Pick: Pospisil
Odds: 2.75 @ William Hill
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 14
Event date: 5 August
