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Portugal Liga Sagres, round 20. Sporting is favored with odds around 1.70 to get the three points Saturday night vs. Rio Ave.
Rio Ave has done pretty well in the 19 rounds elapsed in Liga Sagres so far. On 10th place they are completely safe from relegation but on the other hand they can’t really move much higher in the table so they are surely focusing more on the League Cup (they are in the final) and the Portugese Cup (they are in the semifinals).
Rio Ave has always been a low scoring team and this season is no exception: 14-20 goal difference in 19 matches. Rio Ave is not in the best form, gaining only one point in the last 3 league matches. Rio Ave will meet the best defense in the league today so they might find it very hard to create goal chances.
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Sporting is on 3rd place and can even challenge for the title: they are only 5 points behind league leaders Benfica and 1 point behind Porto for the 2nd place. Sporting allowed an impressive number of 12 goals in 19 matches, and have scored 36 times, that`s an average of 3 goals per game. The visiting win got a hard fought win vs. Olhanense last round (1-0) after falling 2-0 in the derby match vs. Benfica.
I think Sporting should win this game because they have by far a better squad, they are in better form and are more motivated than their opponents. Another important aspect of the analysis is that Sporting is a very strong team on the road (6 wins in 9 matches) and Rio Ave is having catastrophical stats on home court (2-2-6 record). So I don`t think Rio Ave having home court advantage will balance with the advantages Sporting has. Also it`s hard to see goal-shy Rio Ave scoring in this game so Sporting might have the entire game to come up with a goal that could be enough for a win.
My tip is Sporting to win. I would also not advice against a bet for Sporting to win and under 2,5 goals to be scored (0-1, 0-2). I think the odds set by the bookies could be lower on Sporting considering the circumstances so 8 units seems like a corect and valuable investment. Correct score prediction would be Rio Ave – Sporting Lisbon 0-2.
Pick: Sporting Lisbon
Odds: 1.73 @ Doxxbet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.84
Event date: 22 February
