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Robin Haase takes on Fernando Verdasco in the ATP Nastase Tiriac Trophy quarterfinals, with the Spaniard rated as a 1.35 odds favorite by the bookies to reach the semis.
Haase played well so far in Bucharest, defeating clay courter Arnaboldi in two sets before routing top seed Bernard Tomic in the second round. It was a 7-6 5-7 6-3 win for Haase, who did show some weakness at times, but overall was the better player and played a good match – even though Tomic isn`t exactly known for his skills on clay. Haase is having a decent season so far, nothing out of the ordinary and he came to Bucharest on the back of a 1st round loss in Monte Carlo to Damir Dzumhur.
Verdasco reached the second or the third round in 8 of the 9 tournaments he played this season. On the other hand, he never won more than 2 matches in a week and this is actually his first quarterfinal in 2016. Still, the Spaniard is looking pretty good so far on the European clay, defeating Delbonis and taking a set from Goffin in Monte Carlo before defeating Setkic and Albot here in Bucharest. Fernando needed 3 sets to defeat Setkic in the first round, but stepped it up in the next stage, leaving Albot with only 4 games to show for.
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Haase leads the Head 2 Head 3-1, winning the last meeting, which was last year on grass. He also won the only meeting on clay, back in 2013, so it`s fair to say that Verdasco does not like to play against him. Both players are all – rounders, so the red clay in Bucharest does not offer anybody a particular advantage.
Verdasco might be coming after a demolition job against Albot, but that does not mean much. The inconsistent Fernando can vary his level a lot from game to game, let alone from match to match. Against a difficult opponent like Haase, who seems to always get the better of Verdasco, there`s every chance for the Spaniard to suffer a meltdown.
Verdasco never played a quarterfinal in 2016 for a reason. He is pretty far away from his best and simply can`t find it in him to be able to stay consistent for a whole week. You can`t argue with him being the favorite here and he played well in Monte Carlo, but I would not be surprised at all if Haase exploits the matchup advantage and claims victory.
Bottom line, this will be the first real test for Verdasco in Bucharest and i can see him failing it. If he plays at his (current) best, he clearly has the first chance, but that`s a huge “If”. He`s always prone to not showing up in a match / set and Haase looks like the perfect opponent to make him start blasting errors. My tip is Haase to win. The over also looks good, but I`m going with the best value. Prediction: Robin Haase – Fernando Verdasco 7-6 3-6 6-3.
Pick: Haase
Odds: 3.30 @ Unibet
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 11.50
Event date: 22 April
