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Switzerland was the huge favorite to win the Davis Cup this year in the absence of Spain and Serbia, and the match against Kazakhstan was surely going to be a walk in the park for Federer and Wawrinka. However, Kazakhstan produced 2 massive upsets in the first two days of action and leads 2-1 coming into Sunday, putting great pressure on the swiss side. Roger Federer vs. Andrey Golubev will be the second match of the day and will be played only if Wawrinka defeats Kukushkin, which I`m about 90% sure will happen, so it`s very likely that we will see this match happening. It will be the match that will decide the tie and it will also be the first meeting between the two.
Federer has returned to form this year, putting in some strong performances especially lately in Dubai (won title) and Indian Wells (lost thriller final to Djokovic). Roger played well at Miami too, but had a breakdown in the last set and a half against Nishikori and lost that quarterfinal, reminding people of the bad 2013 version of himself. However, Federer recovered to play a solid (not great) match against Kukushkin on Friday, with few unforced errors and very good movement (which has been a massive improvement this year for Fed), leveling the tie at 1-1. It was a 6-4 6-4 6-2 win but a little bit harder than the score suggests, the first two sets were really close. Roger went on to also play in the doubles, losing a tight 4 setter to the Kazakhstan team, but it was Wawrinka who was the weak link – Federer played well. Fedex is extremely motivated for this years` Davis Cup, he knows it`s a huge chance for him to win the only major trophy that eluded him (along with the Olympics singles gold) and proof of that is that he came to play in the first two rounds despite a very busy schedule.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Golubev has been the difference maker so far in this tie. Even though the world no. 64 had a relatively poor year (Astana challenger title being the only highlight), he has always raised his level in the Davis Cup and did it now more than ever in this tie with Switzerland. Golubev played an amazing match against Wawrinka, winning in 4 sets, serving very well, holding his nerves and hitting heavy shots with few unforced errors. Indeed, Wawrinka was not at his best, but he was playing decent and it`s not like he handed the win to Golubev. The Kazakh was even more impressive in the doubles, where he was the leader of the team and played some great offensive tennis, carrying young Aleksandr Nedovyesov and receiving great praise from Roger Federer himself.
My call is that this will be a closer than expected match. Of course, I expect Federer to win and hand Switzerland a dramatic 3-2 win, but it won`t be easy. Golubev has played really, really well this weekend, we`re talking Top 20 material and he showed great mental strength as well, so he shouldn`t fold under the pressure of a deciding tie vs. Federer on the road. His serve worked excellent and will help him get free points and stay close in all sets, especially that Federer is not the most amazing returner out there. Also, I have small doubts over the fitness level of Roger. The swiss has played so much lately, 5 consecutive weeks of tennis at Dubai, IW and Miami, reaching the final stages of every tournament, plus this Davis Cup tie where he already played 2 consecutive games. I expect Federer to win and he is very motivated, as I said, but he might try to save some energy and get a ‘clever’ win, not running around like a madman on every return game and putting pressure in key moments. All in all the 7,5 handicap is way too high according to the circumstances and what we`ve seen this week – Roger barely covered this spread against Kukushkin, who is playing much worse than Golubev right now.
My tip is Golubev +7,5 at great odds – which by the way are dropping fast, so you might want to take this early. Prediction: Roger Federer – Andrey Golubev 7-6 6-3 6-4, but I really don`t rule out Golubev getting a set here. If Wawrinka loses to Kukushkin this will be a void bet, but as I said i find that almost impossible to happen.
Pick: Golubev (+7,5)
Odds: 1.92 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.28
Event date: 6 April
