Federer – Murray

Depending on the Nishikori – Raonic result, Federer could be qualified by match time, or he might need at least a close two set loss to go trough. If he wins a set he will be guaranteed the first place. Andy Murray will also know exactly what he has to do, but clearly he will need at least to be very competitive here in order to qualify in the next stage of the ATP World Tour finals.

Federer is in fine form, he seems to have gotten over that small dip in level he suffered in Paris due to fatigue. He`s back on track and he managed two blowout wins against Raonic and Nishikori. Still, despite the convincing manner of his wins, the truth is that Roger did not really play world class tennis, the opposition made things easier for him, he did have more unforced errors than winners against Nishikori. Nevertheless, he`s playing well and stated that he wants the win today for points, confidence, and to get one over a rival.

Murray was disappointing against Nishikori and I was thinking that fatigue finally got to him, he played non stop tennis in the last 2 months in order to qualify for the World Tour finals. However, the Brit proved me wrong and he really increased his level for the Raonic match, getting a solid two sets win over a Top 10 player, something he hasn`t done in a very long time. Andy is still not at the level he had two years ago, but he`s obviously improving and can play absolute top class tennis at least for stretches of a match.

Bet on Roger Federer vs. Andy Murray with the best World Tour finals tennis odds at Pinnacle.

The H2H is 11-11 and Murray is usually able to create problems for Fed with his defense, but it`s well known that Roger is always winning the big matches against Andy and he also won both encounters this season, 5-1 in sets. I`m not quite sure this can be dubbed as a big match though, especially for Roger, who might actually be better off finishing second (to play Djokovic in the semis so he can stand a chance for year end No. 1 ranking) – not to say he will concede the match, there`s no doubt he will try to win it.

I like Federer to win this, but odds of 1.40 are a little bit low considering Murray`s improvement and the complex mathematics that surround this game (qualification – wise). I expect Murray to come out guns blazing, fighting for his life in this tournament and if he repeats or improves the performance against Raonic he will trouble Federer, who has been a little shaky with his unforced errors. As I said I think Federer will win, but I really can’t see any arguments for a blowout and I think Murray will win a set.

My tip is over 22,5 games, a very solid pick as far as I`m concerned, as this can realistically be a winning bet in two sets as well (ex: 7-6 6-4). High stakes. Prediction: Roger Federer – Andy Murray 6-3 5-7 6-4.

Pick: over 22,5 games
Odds: 1.91 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.19
Event date: 13 November