Federer – Thiem

Roger Federer and Dominic Thiem will square off in a do or die clash at the ATP World Tour finals in London, after both players lost their opening matches in straight sets.

Federer was extremely disappointing in his 6-7 3-6 loss against Nishikori, playing some of his worst tennis of the season. Fed just couldn`t get any rhythm and made a ton of unforced errors, allowing Nishikori to win even if Kei himself didn`t play great. Roger hasn`t been in his best form in the second part of this season, but still his performance was surprising considering that in his last match he played excellent in the Paris semifinals against Djokovic (despite losing 6-7 7-5 6-7).

Thiem qualified for the Finals as the 8th ranked player in the ATP race, and quite honestly he wasn`t expected to do much damage – also because indoor hard is far from being his best surface. Dominic didn`t play bad on Sunday against Anderson, but eventually lost 3-6 6-7, and the South African clearly deserved his win.

Bet on Federer vs. Thiem and claim your 100% (120 Eur) welcome bonus at LSbet!

The H2H is 2-1 for Dominic Thiem, but both of Thiem`s wins were on clay, and both were in 2016 (arguably Thiem`s best year on tour, and a bad season for Federer). The other meeting also took place in 2016 and it was on hard, with Federer winning it 6-1 6-4 in Brisbane.

Federer definitely looked worrying in his opening match, and quite honestly this has not been his best year, especially since the Australian Open. He wasn`t his usual dominating self on the American hard courts and in the late part of the year on hard indoor.

However, even so, Federer still competed at a high level after Wimbledon, winning Basel, reaching the Final at Cincinnati, as well as semifinals at Paris and Shanghai. Two of the losses in the last three of the mentioned tournaments came against Djokovic.

Roger also entered this tournament after a really, really good performance in that tight loss against Nole in Paris, so that made the loss against Nishikori that much more surprising. But the fact that Fed looked bad on Sunday does not mean he will look the same today (there aren`t any reports about possible injuries).

In fact, history has showed us time and time again that in similar circumstances to the current ones, Federer almost always bounces back after such a loss. Having followed Federer since the start of his career, one has to feel that this is the kind of match Federer wins, when maybe some would expect him to struggle.

The fact that indoor hard is Federer`s best surface along with grass, and Thiem`s worst, will definitely give Fed a big edge here. Thiem may be competent under the roof, but he`s not elite, and his 47/38 record indoor is very poor for a player of his caliber (especially as some of those 47 wins were on clay, Dominic’s favorite surface).

I expect Federer to win this rather easily thanks to his experience at this venue, and because of the extremely favorable conditions against a clay courter like Thiem. It will be difficult for Roger to qualify from the group, but he should win this to give himself a chance in the last round against Anderson.

My tip will be Federer to win in straight sets, but despite having condifence in him I will keep the stakes reasonable, as his bad form on Sunday must still be given some consideration. Prediction: Roger Federer – Dominic Thiem 6-4 6-4.

Pick: Federer -1,5 set handicap
Odds: 2.07 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7.49
Event date: 13 November