Betdistrict.com
Roger Federer opens his campaign at the new ATP 250 event in Istanbul against Jarkko Nieminen of Finland.
Federer was surely well paid to appear at the inaugural edition of ATP Istanbul and he`ll view this tournament as nothing more than an opportunity to practice on clay and maybe try on some new things. Obviously Roger will try to win it all in the end, but he might be a little rusty in the first few rounds – as he traditionally is early on in tournaments. Federer is coming after a disappointing showing in Monte Carlo, losing to Monfils in his second match (even though, uncharacteristically, he was brilliant in his first match with Chardy, 6-2 6-1) and he had a bye in the first round here in Istanbul.
Nieminen is surely not in his best form, having never passed the second round of a tournament since the Australian Open, but he played a solid match to dispatch local favorite Ilhan in the first round here – a comfortable 6-3 6-4 win, something for the Finnish veteran to build on. Jarkko has been competitive in virtually every match he played this season but he wasn`t able to get past the finish line on some occasions, so he will be happy to keep Ilhan under control and finish him in two.
Bet on Federer vs. Nieminen and get your 100% welcome bonus at Bet365.com now!
Federer leads the Head 2 Head 14-0, something that will clearly be in Nieminen’s head coming into this clash. However it`s hard to say that Roger holds a matchup advantage over Jarkko, it`s more like sheer difference in clash. On clay the pair met only 2 times, two easy wins for the Swiss.
The Head 2 Head might look devastating for Nieminen, but at a closer look one can see that the Finnish player always held his own against Roger, many of the matches being relatively close. Considering the fact that Federer will clearly be far from his best in the first round at Istanbul and taking into account the slow clay here, plus Nieminen’s good performance in the first round, I expect Jarkko to be able to cover a 6 game handicap – a handicap which he covered or pushed in 11 of the 14 Head 2 Head meetings.
Only three times did Federer win by a margin of more than 6 games against Nieminen (the last time it happened was in 2008, 5 meetings since than) – and it doesn’t look likely that he will do it again in the first round of a tournament which is probably the absolute last of his priorities this year. Look for a shaky performance from Roger, with a lot of unforced errors, while Nieminen will surely give it his absolute best. Federer is usually satisfied with one break per set in these early rounds, so my tip is Nieminen +6 games. Prediction: Roger Federer – Jarkko Nieminen 6-4 7-5.
Live streaming for Federer vs. Nieminen available for all players at Bet365.com.
Pick: Nieminen +6 game handicap
Odds: 1.70 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.6
Event date: 29 April
