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Roger Federer will hope to get the better of Kei Nishikori in this Miami ATP quarterfinal and secure a top 4 place starting next week. The Japanese player will look to build on his good form here, but will have to recover after a grueling Round 16 win against David Ferrer.
Federer stated at the beginning of the season that he expect to be at his best by April, and boy is he making good of his word. The swiss maestro is in brilliant form over the last few weeks, winning the Dubai title, losing a tight final with Djokovic at Indian Wells and playing brilliant tennis again here at Miami. Federer lost just 2 sets in his last 9 matches (both to Djokovic) and his seve (the best indicative of his game) is working amazing right now. Federer lost just 18 points on serve and faced a single break point in 3 matches here at Miami, demolishing Karlovic, de Bakker and finally Gasquet, in a 6-1 6-2 masterpiece performance yesterday. Roger is moving very well and his backhand side is stable, so it`s safe to say Federer is very close to his best level of tennis right now.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Nishikori played good tennis this season prior to Miami, posting a win-loss record of 13-4 and winning the Memphis title. He lost to Haas in the 3rd round of Indian Wells last week but bounced back and showed some great form here at Miami, defeating Matosevic and rising star Dimitrov without losing a set before facing David Ferrer in the Round 16. The Ferrer game was a rollercoaster from start to finish, but it was Nishikori the one who edged it 7-6 2-6 7-6 in over 3 hours of grueling rallies and running around. The japanese player was arguably second best in the contest and he was a little bit lucky to escape with the win, saving multiple set points in the first set tiebreak and dodging 4 match points in the decider before taking his first one. He was looking pretty tired towards the end of the third set and I doubt he will be able to restore his energy playing in back to back days.
The H2H is 1-1, with Nishikori winning the last meeting in 2013 on clay and Roger defeating Kei in 2011 on hard court. I`d say Nishikori is an ok matchup for Federer, as the japanese player does not have the consistency and error-free game to frustrate an in-form Federer.
Listen, Nishikori is a fine player, but after yesterday`s marathon against Ferrer you can`t expect him to be at his best, and Federer will surely take advantage of any sign of tiredness by the japanese player. Nishikori made a lot of unforced errors yesterday and was visibly fatigued towards the end of the match, so that will be a big problem for him against the experienced and in-form Federer. Also, Kei was very poor on his own serve, allowing no less than 14 (!!!) break points and 7 breaks. He will have to make a huge step up in this department, considering the way Federer has served in the last few weeks and particularly here in Miami. Roger is playing brilliant right now and I expect something somewhat similar to yesterday`s demolition of Gasquet. A 4,5 game handicap is well within Roger`s reach, especially taking into account that he won a lot of matches by big margins recently and Nishikori’s serve is not at all too scary. All in all, Roger Federer to win with a 4,5 handicap will be my tip for this one. Prediction: Roger Federer – Kei Nishikori 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Roger Federer (-4,5)
Odds: 1.81 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.48
Event date: 27 March
