Federer – Anderson

Roger Federer and Kevin Anderson will square off in the last round robin match of the ATP Finals Group Lleyton Hewitt.

Federer (1 win, 1 loss, 2-2 in sets) hasn`t really been at his best since the Australian Open, and wasn`t as dominant as usual on the American hard court season or in the indoor season – only winning Basel since the grass court season. Here in London he played extremely poorly in his first match, losing 6-7 3-6 against Nishikori (who did not play great either), but stepped it up in the second round on Tuesday. Fed made light work of Thiem, winning 6-2 6-4, and is now in with a good chance to qualify for the semifinals.

Anderson (2 wins, 0 losses, 4-0 in sets), had his best year on tour this season, and came into London in good form, having previously won in Vienna. This week Kevin has played some of his best tennis, looking extremely sharp in two dominant wins against Thiem (6-3 7-6) and Nishikori (6-0 6-1!). Anderson was simply magnificent against Nishikori, playing some Grand Slam winning level tennis, and even he admitted that it was one of the best matches of his career.

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The H2H stands at 4-1 for Federer (3-0 on hard). Fed won the first 4 meetings without dropping a set or even playing a tiebreak, and it looked like he has a massive matchup advantage over Anderson, like he has against all big servers. However, Anderson claimed a shock five set win in the last meeting, right in Federer`s house at Wimbledon – coming back from 0-2 down as well.

Much of the qualification process depends on the result between Thiem and Nishikori, who play earlier in the day.

The tiebreakers are:

• Number of wins
• If two players are tied, Head 2 Head results
• If three players are tied: 1) Highest percentage of sets won. 2) Highest percentage of games won. 3) ATP Rankings.

While the qualification process for Group Lleyton Hewitt remains pretty complicated, Federer and Anderson will still have something to play for no matter the result between Thiem and Nishikori.

They will both need to win at least a set in order to qualify or to win the group, and they will both want to win the group – because that is a massive prize considering the way Djokovic is playing. The only exception is if Nishikori wins in 2 (a case in which Anderson will only need to win a certain number of games in order to top the group).

ATP World tour provided a well structured explanation on all possible scenarios.

#NittoATPFinals SF scenarios ⬇️ for @rogerfederer, @kandersonatp, @keinishikori, @ThiemDomi #ATP pic.twitter.com/K7K2qT3Lpf

— ATP World Tour (@ATPWorldTour) November 13, 2018

That being said, this should be a close match here.

Federer is not playing lights out and even at his best level, he would have a difficult mission against this version of Anderson. The South African is playing lights out tennis and his serve is almost untouchable on this fast surface in London. Anderson has not been broken so far in this tournament, and didn`t even allow a single break point!

On the other hand, it`s hard to bet against Federer in a do or die match like this, with his experience at this venue, and especially after the improvement showed against Thiem. Federer also played an excellent match two weeks ago in the Paris semifinals, despite losing in a deciding set tiebreak against Djokovic. As such, he showed a very good level in two of his last three matches.

It is hard to see either one of these two guys running away with this match.

As such, I will bet on over 23 games to be played. The standard line is at 23.5, but I recommend taking the over 23 or the over 22.5, bets which are available at most bookies and cover us in case of a 7-6 6-4 score – a very important safety net to have.

You might want to wait and see if Nishikori wins in two sets (a case in which Anderson would be sure of topping the group even with something like a 3-6 4-6 loss), but I don`t think that will change things too much. Anderson would still need a number of games, and he surely won’t come out just to win 6 or 7 games, that would be a mistake at this level – he would still push to win at least a set. Prediction: Roger Federer – Kevin Anderson 6-7 6-4 7-6..

Pick: over 23.0 games
Odds: 1.74 @ 18Bet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.92
Event date: 15 November