Federer – Copil

Roger Federer will seek his ninth Basel title when he meets the surprising finalist Marius Copil on Sunday.

Federer has not been in great form in the second part of this year, failing to win a title since his victory at Stuttgart in June, and not having the desired results at Wimbledon (QF exit) or at the US Open (4th round exit). After the US Open Federer played just two tournaments, one in Shanghai (lost in SF to Coric) and one here in Basel. This week Federer was very far from his best in the first three rounds against Krajinovic, Struff and Simon, losing two sets along the way. But, as it is often the case, Roger raised his level in the semifinals, destroying Medvedev 6-1 6-4.

Marius Copil is having the tournament of his career this week in Basel. The 93rd ranked Romanian (an expert on indoor hard courts) was not in great form entering the tournament, but he had a dream week here. Copil passed qualifications and claimed some big scalps in his road to the final. Including qualies, Copil defeated M. Zverev, Lajovic, R. Harrison, Cilic, Fritz and A. Zverev – losing just one set, in the semifinal against Alex Zverev (6-3 6-7 6-4).

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This will be the first meeting between Federer and Copil. Both are experts on indoor hard, so the surface shouldn`t favor one or the other – although Federer will always have an advantage in Basel. As for the styles matchup, Federer might have an edge here, as Copil is a big server with flat strokes – a poor man`s Berdych, if you want – the kind of player Federer usually does well against.

Credit to Marius Copil for reaching this stage, and I have to admit I didn`t think he will reach the final. I did believe he has what it takes to reach the semis after his early win against Cilic, but beating Alex Zverev seemed like too much of a hurdle. However, Copil did brilliantly do defeat the German, not losing his serve even once in three sets.

Overall Copil played some very good tennis this week, which is not necessarily surprising considering the fact that he is a true indoor hard court expert, and his breakthrough was going to come sooner or later. The most impressive thing about his journey this week was his mental strength, as he was able to dodge multiple break points and set points against top players, also taking charge and being aggressive in key moments.

However, it has to be said that Copil had his fair share of luck. His last three matches all hanged by a thread, and he was able to come on top. He often made his own luck, but also had plenty of fortune. Not to mention that Alex Zverev was far from his best in the semifinal – a mediocre performance from him would have surely put Copil at bay. The Romanian benefited from a ton of unforced errors from Zverev.

Federer did not enter the tournament in good form and was very poor in the first three rounds, but in the semifinals against Medvedev he really stepped it up, and you would expect him to be even better in the finals. A champion like Roger always raises his level in the final rounds.

Copil is playing well but he`s not necessarily exceptional, he dodged a lot of difficult situations in the last three rounds and Federer should finally punish him here. Nerves might also be a factor, as Copil is playing the biggest match of his career in Switzerland against Roger Federer. The Romanian was very strong mentally in this tournament, but has a history of chocking, and actually did it once this week (in the QF against Fritz, being saved by Fritz chocking himself). Federer played tons of matches like these and usually he handed the up and coming players big beatings in similar circumstances.

My tip is Federer to cover the -4 (asian) game handicap, he should get at least one break per set here despite Copil`s big serve. The Romanian will likely be competitive, but he`ll find it difficult to win games against Fed in a final. The -3.5 handicap is available at most bookies at odds around 1.65, so that is an option as well if you don`t want to risk a void bet on the -4 handicap. Prediction: Roger Federer – Marius Copil 6-4 6-2.

Pick: Federer -4 games
Odds: 2.00 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7
Event date: 28 October