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Roger Federer and Milos Raonic will square off for the second time in 10 days, this time counting for the group opener in the ATP Barclays World Tour finals. Andy Murray and Kei Nishikori are also in this group B.
Federer was brilliant in the last few months, winning Shanghai and Basel by playing absolute top class tennis – however, fatigue and exhaustion got to him and he did not perform up to standards in the Paris Masters, where he lost in the quarters in two tight sets against today`s opponent Raonic, despite owning a 6-0 H2H over the Canadian. Now, after more than a week of break, Federer will hope he will be able to get back to the level he showed before Paris.
Raonic had a breakout year, reaching the World Tour finals for the first time. The big serving canadian was not in his best form in the last few months of 2014 but managed to pick up his level and record one of the biggest performances of his career in Paris, reaching the final, defeating Federer on the way. However, the drubbing he got from Djokovic in the last act proved the fact that Milos did not suddenly reach a next level of tennis and his performance was just a mix of good form and fortunate circumstances.
Bet on Roger Federer – Milos Raonic with the best World Tour finals odds at Pinnacle.
Federer leads the H2H 6-1, winning his matches easily against Raonic, usually being able to break him and avoid tiebreaks. It`s no secred that Raonic is one of Federer’s preferred victims and that the Swiss is an absolute beast against big servers. The last match, won by Raonic, does not change this – even in questionable form, Roger held his own and only 2-3 big points made the difference.
I tipped Roger to win in straight sets in Paris and I lost, but I will make the exact bet this time around, with great confidence and at better odds. Roger was clearly not at his best two weeks ago, he was tired and that is the biggest reason for which Raonic beat him. I expect a rested Federer to perform much better today, reading Raonic’s serve as he always does and recording yet another easy win over the Canadian. The fact that it’s the World Tour finals, might also count, Raonic might be a little tight, while Roger has a ton of experience in dealing with these kind of matches.
My tip is Federer to win with a 1,5 set handicap and the only reason why I`m not going with 10 units is because set betting is always riskier, especially when a possible tiebreak is involved – but the bet should be a winner. Prediction: Roger Federer – Milos Raonic 6-4 7-6.
Pick: Federer (-1,5 set handicap)
Odds: 2.05 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 9.45
Event date: 9 November
now i am convinced that you have some weaknees for some player/teams like federer or dinamo, and that affects your betting. i don t say that federer can t win this 2=0 , but just past weeks raonic wined clear. i don see any solid argument for this bet beacause there is not one. i think you are subjective . i am sure that you are a good tipster,no doubt about that, but still in a few predictions you are subjective,you bet more with your heart, i think all of us make that sometimes. cheers
I remember your last comment and you had a valid point. I think we all struggle to change styles that brought us big success in the past. I`m an honest guy, I`m not afraid to admit it. I am working on it and one of the things I have changed is that I am open to take advice. But of course I will not pick my bets just because you or another person says so.
In this case, you can`t say there is no argument for the bet, you really can’t say that. The H2H is an absolutely HUGE argument in tennis. Maybe (maybe!) in Paris I made a mistake, because Fed was tired, but still I think the bet was worth it, because the H2H matchup usually transcends form and fatigue (just see Fed vs. Nadal). This time I really can’t fault myself even if the bet loses, which I don`t think will happen.
Regarding Dinamo, I always say in the end of the pick that it is my favorite team, but I have never bet on Dinamo with my heart. The only thing which is true is that I rarely bet AGAINST Dinamo. This season with Dinamo I have 6 wins, 6 losses and 2 pushes. I have positive profit because most odds were over 2.00.
Cheers mate!