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After some poor performances this year, especially in the last months, Roger Federer has picked up the pace and here he is in the Paris semifinal.
Federer is on the back of a final at Basel last week, he lost to Del Potro in 3 sets. He avenged the loss against Del Potro here in the Paris round 16 … a 3 set victory but very convincing for Federer. The swiss showed flashes of his old self since Basel, but yesterday against Del Potro he was fantastic, just like in his best days. Except for 3-4 games in the end of the 2nd set and start of the 3rd set, Federer was dominant and painted the lines with winners. The performance was a confirmation of his form, both in Basel and in Paris (where he beat Anderson and Kohlschreiber in straight sets earlier).
Djokovic is the man in form in the ATP tour right now. After losing the US Open final to Nadal he won both tournaments in which he played, Beijing and Shanghai. He handed Nadal his first hard court loss of the season in Beijing. Nole continued his run here in Paris but he looked a little rusty in the start. Tight win with Herbert, then losing set to Isner, then raising the level to dismantle Wawrinka, but he also had some luck as Wawrinka did not find his best game.
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Djokovic is the favorite in this match for sure, but the odds of ~1.30 on him are a joke. Federer over 3.00 is way too much. I remember him being priced so high in the Cincinnati match against Nadal, and he almost won it, and then he was in really bad form, against his nemesis Nadal. The thing here is that Djokovic is the most accessible opponent for Federer from the top 4. Djokovic hates to play against offensive players or hard hitters (we saw it with Isner here in Paris). When Federer, plays his best game, there is nothing the serbian can do, and we saw it many times when Nole was in top form but lost to the swiss. The key is that in the Djokovic – Federer matchup, it all depends on Federer. THe H2H is 16-13 for the swiss, Nole won the last meeting 7-6 7-5 last year at the London finals.
We know that Djokovic is consistent and in-form, so what are the probabilities for this game? I see three possible scenarios here.
1. Federer continues his great form and plays even better than yesterday. If so, he will win.
2. Federer plays great but with some hiccups, like yesterday. If so, it will be a match decided in a tight three setter
3. Federer plays mediocre or bad. If so, he will lose
If I were to simply choose a winner, maybe I would pick the serbian. But Federer has about 45% chances to win it and at this odds this is a clear value bet. I would also add motivation as an argument: Djokovic for sure has the London finals in mind, but Federer is desperate for wins and he would be thrilled to get this Paris title. With a little bit of luck we can get a great profit, Roger simply needs to hold his current level of play to guarantee at least a tight match. Federer – Djokovic 7-6 3-6 6-4.
Pick: Roger Federer
Odds: 3.71 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 16.26
Event date: 2 November
Editor Facts
- Ocean did not post any tips on tennis since June 2013
