Betdistrict.com
A new episode of the great rivalry between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal (also known as ‘Fedal’) will take place tonight in the Cincinnati quarter finals. On paper the match looks to be more one-sided than ever, but will it be so on the court?
Federer is having his worst year since he became number 1, no doubt about it. He dropped to number 5 in the rankings for the first time in the last decade and in the Race to London classification he is only on 7th place. The swiss only reached 2 finals this year, one at Rome (lost to Nadal) and one at Halle (which he won, def. Youzhny). And Roger`s short-term form is even worse, with a 2nd round exit at Wimbledon, semifinals at Hamburg and 2nd round exit at Gstaad. Here at Cincinnati he showed flashes of his old self in both his matches (defeated Kohlschreiber 2-0 and Haas 2-1), but overall he is still searching for his game. Nevertheless, he is entering this match on a high, after playing brilliant in the second part of the encounter with Haas, where he recovered from 1-6 2-4 to win the match. It has to be said that Roger reverted back to his old racquet after doing some experiments with a larger one in Gstaad and Hamburg.
The swiss said he is feeling well, no back pain, and that he is very confident about his game improving. This is the best place for him to regain his form, as Cincinnati is one of his favorite tournaments, if not his best. The surface really suits him well and he`s extremely motivated to do a good job here, he needs form before the US Open, he is also the title holder at Cincy so he has many points to defend.
Nadal is the most in-form player of the moment, winning Montreal last week after beating Djokovic in the semifinals. Rafa is surprisingly undefeated on hard courts this season, he actually played better on hard then on clay, which is obviously a shocking thing to consider, but it`s true. Here at Cincinnati Nadal continued his solid play, despite looking to slow down a little bit. He easily dispatched Becker before having some hiccups against Dimitrov, but in the end defeating him pretty clearly: 6-2 5-7 6-2. But, as I said, he did have “off-moments” in last night`s game – which are more than relevant, considering Dimitrov was by no means at his best. This can be just a fluke, or maybe a sign of fatigue or a consequence of the courts here. Cincinnati is Rafa`s worst Masters, he never won it, the surface is the worst for him to play on.
H2H of course is known to be in Rafa`s favor, he holds a huge match-up advantage against Federer, leading 20-10 and winning the last two meetings, both this year, both very clearly (6-4 6-2 Indian Wells, 6-1 6-3 Rome). It has to be said though that in Indian Wells Roger was suffering from back problems and he was unable to compete, not running and serving poorly.
The spaniard has another advantage today, he played Dimitrov last round, the bulgarian being an almost identical player to Federer style-wise, so Nadal should be more than prepared to face his rival today. However, these two know eachother so well that this argument could not matter too much.
Rafa is the favorite today, no doubt about it, but I just feel the odds are crazy. Federer is still a top player and he will beat anybody on his day, on this surface. Rafa almost had the same odds against Dimitrov, which is insane. I actually find it funny thinking about backing Rafa at 1.20 against Roger at Cincinnati. Yes, Nadal is in way better form, has the huge match-up advantage and beat Federer twice this year, without any problems. Despite all these, Roger still has his weapons, the most important one being the surface. His best surface vs. Nadal`s worst and he is still getting odds 4.00? No way. Also, Roger has been serving well, which is an important part of his game, and a must against Rafa. The swiss has really not been bad here in Cincy and being healthy, he could really challenge his nemesis today. These two can always produce surprises in direct meetings, I remember 2009 when Federer was in the second worst spell (form-wise) in his career and Rafa was looking invincible, much like now, and also winning the last 5 meetings against the swiss. Well, from nowhere, Roger won Madrid Masters, beating Rafa 2-0 in the final, on clay! He followed that with winning Roland Garros and Wimbledon back to back. For sure his chances are much better now, on the american hard courts, than back then.
In the past 7-8 years a contest between these two at Cincinnati would have almost been a guaranteed Federer victory. Times have changed, but these courts will really be a huge advantage for the swiss tonight. If Roger keeps his level of play from the second part of the match against Haas (or improves it) and Rafa does not play better than against Dimitrov, anything is possible in this one. I will back Roger to win this one at huge value. Handicap on the swiss (+4) also looks ok but as I said, anything can happen, so I`ll go with value.
Pick: Federer
Odds: 4.00 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 21
Event date: 16 August
