Federer – Nadal

After almost two years of waiting, the massive rivalry between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal is set to resume, as we have been blessed with a Fedal in the ATP Basel final. The Swiss maestro is rated as a huge favorite by the bookies and it has been a very long time since he last had odds as low as 1.35 to defeat his rival.

Federer had a great year so far, at times playing close to the level he had in his glory days, but it has to be said that he has not been particularly great after the US Open. Roger lost early in Shanghai and playing two three set matches here in Basel, despite having a comfortable schedule. He had problems with Kohlschreiber and Goffin, but played better tennis in the semifinals (as expected) to defeat Jack Sock 2-0.

Nadal really struggled in his first two matches, winning 2-1 against both Rosol and Dimitrov and alternating vintage Rafa tennis with periods of poor play. He didn`t have it easy in the quarterfinals either, trailing by a set and a break to Cilic, but he recovered and never looked back – winning in 3 sets and then beating Gasquet 6-4 7-6 in the semifinals, his best match of the tournament. The Mallorcan improved with each round and, even if he`s still not at his best level, his tennis is looking pretty good.

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The matchup advantage for Nadal against Federer is famous, as the Spaniard leads the Head 2 Head 23-10. However, Federer has a 4-1 advantage on indoor hard (with Nadal winning the last meeting on this surface).

Nadal will look to exploit the Head 2 Head advantage and I reckon he is ready for Federer. I watched Rafa against Dimitrov and, despite struggling at times, his gameplan was vintage “anti Federer” – as we know Dimitrov is very similar to Roger. Nadal kept sending long balls to the Dimitrov backhand, returned excellent on the second serve and attacked almost every backhand slice Dimitrov sent his way. Surely a very, very good preparation ahead of this Fedal.

While I do expect Federer to come in and play his best match of the tournament in the final, the reality is that he hasn`t been that great lately, while Nadal has not been bad at all this week. Rafa obviously holds the massive matchup advantage which is visible in the Head 2 Head, but Federer has the advantage of playing at home, on indoor hard – a surface on which he only lost once to Nadal.

All in all it should be a great match and it will likely be closer than expected. The under / over line is pretty low, so my tip is over 22 games. I expect three sets, but at 22 games we can easily win in two tight sets as well. Prediction: Roger Federer – Rafael Nadal 6-7 6-4 6-3.

Pick: over 22 games
Odds: 1.80 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.40
Event date: 1 November