Federer – Nadal

Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal will square off in an old school Australian Open final, which might well be the most anticipated match in the history of tennis.

Federer has been in brilliant form this tournament, not only in terms of level of play, but mentally as well. The 35 year old Swiss managed to win in 5 sets against both Nishikori and Wawrinka, after losing the 4th and seeming to have the 2nd chance in those deciders. Roger is on the back of a 3 hour match against Wawrinka, playing fantastic tennis in the first two sets, losing steam in the next two and winning the 5th without particularly excelling. His serve got him trough, as it has been the case troughout the tournament. Roger has served brilliantly and that is always the best indicative of his level and mindset.

Rafa Nadal is on the back of a 5 set win over Grigor Dimitrov in the semifinals, a 5 hour thriller in which Rafa was very close to getting knocked out. It was a high quality match and arguably the best of the tournament for Rafa, who was great but not totally dominant in these last two weeks. Against an inspired Grigor though, he played some excellent tennis. It remains to be seen if Nadal can recover in due time after that grueling match, as he is not 23 years old anymore and injuries have been a factor for him in the last years.

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Nadal leads the H2H 23-11. He leads 9-7 on hard courts, 9-2 in Grand Slam matches and 6-2 in Grand Slam finals. The numbers do not lie and it is well known that Nadal’s style is Federer’s kryptonite. As such, Rafa will always have an advantage when playing his rival, even on fast surfaces. Nevertheless, he never dominated with as much authority on the fastest surfaces, like indoor, where Federer leads 5-1. The courts in Melbourne this year are much faster and that will certainly help Roger.

Federer had some adductor problems late against Wawrinka and revealed that he has been having them all tournament, but he played trough them in these two weeks and he had plenty of rest before the final, so he should be fine.

The Swiss had an extra day of rest and Nadal had to play a grueling 5 hour match in the semifinals. Rafa himself had some physical problems against Dimitrov, so it can`t be said that one player is healthier than the other, but Fed might be more rested. This is a deja – vu of the circumstances back in 2009 final, when Nadal had 1 less day on rest and played a 5 hour semifinal. That did not hurt him then, as he beat Federer in 5, but that was a prime, pre-injuries Nadal. My guess is he won`t be able to recover in the same manner this time around.

The Head 2 Head matchup is a huge advantage for Nadal and will always give him a great chance against Federer. However, I believe Fed has his own advantages here: the faster courts this year in Melbourne, extra rest and Rafa’s questionable physical form after the match with Dimitrov. In my eyes, these three factors are crucial and can overturn Nadal’s H2H advantage.

Rafa wasn’t particularly fantastic these past two weeks, he played really well but had plenty of dips in level against Zverev, Monfils or Dimitrov. He also benefited from Raonic being hurt and squandering break points in the quarterfinals. Federer had his own problems, but has been more consistent, serve consistently great and with the extra quickness of the courts this year, I believe he can put Rafa under some pressure – not allowing the Spaniard to attack his backhand as much as he would like.

This should be a close game but if Federer serves like he did until now, he has a good chance on these faster Australian courts. I`d give him a 55% chance here, I don`t think Nadal has the same game and same ability to frustrate Roger like he did 5 years ago. As such, I`m happy to back Federer at any odds above 2.00.

The over on the total games line looks like a good bet as well, but my tip is Federer to win. I was planning to bet 8 or 9 units at odds around 2.10 – 2.15, but the price at 1xBet has just gone up to an amazing 2.29 and forces me to invest maximum stakes. Prediction: Roger Federer – Rafael Nadal 7-6 6-4 3-6 7-5.

Pick: Federer
Odds: 2.29 @ 1xBet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 12.90
Event date: 29 January