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Roger Federer will have to recover quickly after his thriller with Leonardo Mayer if he is to have a safe passage to the quarterfinals. Bautista Agut will try to take advantage of Federer`s apparent rustiness and indeed the bookies are giving the Spaniard some credit, opening with Federer at odds of almost 1.20.
Federer played Davis Cup on clay after his semifinal exit at the US Open, easily winning both singles rubbers against Italy, but the change of surface and the fact that yesterday was his first match in Asia clearly hurt the Swiss. Federer had to save 5 match points to edge Leonardo Mayer in a third set tiebreak and looked shaky to say the least at times, though Mayer played a great match. Roger never had much success in Asia or here at Shanghai so it was somewhat expected that he will struggle, but not to this extent – he has to improve.
Bautista Agut put on his usual feisty performance here in Shanghai, edging Dolgopolov 6-4 6-4 and Vasek Pospisil 7-6 3-6 6-4. The Spaniard had the best season of his career but was completely unimpressive in the hard court swing, passing the second round just once in the last three months – a 4th round showing at US Open where, in the form of his life, he was shattered by Federer. Bautista Agut looked OK here in Shanghai, playing good tennis, but it remains to be seen how will he handle himself against a totally different caliber of opposition (Dolgopolov and Pospisil where not exactly playing great tennis this week).
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
The H2H is 1-0 for Federer, the only meeting taking place very recently at the US Open with Roger winning easily 6-4 6-3 6-2. The matchup analysis will say that the Swiss loves to play against these clay-type baseline players, his record against Ferrer being a testament to this.
Listen, I watched this scenario tens of times in my “tipster career”. Federer struggles in the first match, than quickly recovers to put on a clinic in the next round against an opponent which suits him. I reckon there`s every chance for something similar to happen today. Roger now has a match under his belt in Asia, a match in which he was heavily tested, so he will be ready for the third round. The fact that he saved 5 match points will surely give him a confidence boost. Expect Roger to play much better and cleaner tennis today and he meets an opponent that does not have the game to create problems, we say in the US Open how Federer simply destroyed Bautista Agut, dominating every game and every point. Even though Roger has never played too well in Shanghai, the analysis suggests he will get an easy win against Bautista Agut and this is exactly what should happen.
The bookies are giving the Spaniard too much respect with these odds and my tip here is Federer to cover the 4,5 game handicap – one break per set should be an easy task for the Swiss (this could mean 6-4 6-4 in the worst case scenario, but we can`t bet with zero risk). A Federer win in straight sets might be a bit safer, but the handicap has much better odds at roughly the same chances. Prediction: Roger Federer – Roberto Bautista Agut 6-3 6-2.
Pick: Federer (-4,5 game handicap)
Odds: 2.05 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 9.45
Event date: 9 October
Nice foto for Federer, but I wouldn’t push 9 units on this handy here. Don’t forget that Federer was playing till 1:30 AM the last match, and then came the interviews and so on.
He posted on twitter, perhaps before sleeping, following:
4:32am: Feel a bit lucky to have won today. I mean tomorrow. i mean today
Indeed you are right, but he plays late today as well. Might be a bit of a downside but personally I am not too worried from this point of view.
I think under21.5 @1.87 got the better value it cover 75,63 of course 64,64
Good point, I think the under is sliiightly safer but the difference in odds is also sensible (when I wrote this pick I think 1.80 was the max. for under 21,5). It`s all about 6-4 6-4 with the under (7-5 6-3 wins the handi too). And of course there`s also the chance of a 6-7 6-3 6-2 kind of result.
I think value is similar. But safer is better
Thats the addional value
can`t fault that logic, but it always depends on the odds. in this case you have a point. but if under 21,5 had odds of 1.65 I would say screw “safer”, -4,5 would have clearly been the better choice.