Romania – Albania

A win for Romania in this last Euro 2016 Group A clash will almost surely see them go trough from the 3rd place and they could even finish second. Albania needs a win to finish third and hope to go trough as one of the best third placed teams. They stand a very good chance of qualifying with a victory against Romania.

After playing a surprisingly good game against France, which they lost 1-2 in the 89th minute, Romania reverted back to their usual style of defensive football in the next game against Switzerland. It was a horrible game for the Romanians and they were very lucky to snatch a 1-1 draw. Switzerland started strong, had a couple of big chances, but Romania opened the score trough a penalty and had 1-2 chances to make it 2-0. After the 30th minute it was all Switzerland and they shredded Romania in the second half, but poor finishing cost them the win. Romania clearly needs to avoid another similar performance if they hope to advance.

Albania lost the opening game 0-1 against Switzerland, but they put on a much better display than Romania did. Albania fell down 0-1 in the first 5 minutes and played an hour with 10 men, but they did not roll over and die – on the contrary, they put pressure and had plenty of chances, deserving a draw. Albania played the same way against France, had some really big chances, while France didn`t really have anything until the last 30 minutes. Les Bleus had their first shot on goal in the 90th minute, when Griezmann broke the deadlock and they added another in the final seconds. France had 2 shots on goal and won 2-0 with goals in the 90th and 96th minute, so the Albanians will surely be gutted.

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Team news & lineups:

Romania faces a big miss in the form of Pintilii (highly doubtful), who has been the best player on the team so far. Romania collapsed against Switzerland when the defensive midfielder had to exit the game. Also, both left backs are doubtful. Kukeli is suspended for Albania, but they get back captain Cana.

Romania: Tatarusanu – Sapunaru, Chiriches, Grigore, Filip – Pintilii, Hoban – Popa, Stanciu, Stancu – Andone

Albania: Berisha – Hysaj, Cana, Mavraj, Agolli – Xhaka, Kace, Abrashi – Lenjani, Sadiku, Roshi

The fact that Romania is a 2.15 odds favorite in this match is not fair and I think most football fans will agree. Albania might actually be better player for player, they definitely have 2-3 guys better than anything Romania has and they showed better, more consistent football in this tournament so far. The Romanians have more depth and a little bit more experience at this level, but I don`t think that makes them favorites against a team that keeps on being underrated, despite proving its worth both in the qualifiers and at these Euros.

Romania will be virtually qualified with a win today, while for Albania a win might not be enough, after they failed to get any points from their first matches. However, the Albanians will have an honest shot to go trough, so they have plenty of motivation as well. They will want to win and hope that two of the other 5 third placed teams finish with a worse record, which is definitely possible – I`d say it`s actually very likely to happen.

A reason for which Romanians should be worried is that they looked drained physically in the last 30 minutes against Switzerland. They were lucky that the Swiss decided to settle for a draw in the last 10 minutes as there was no point for them in risking. If Romania does not recover quickly, there will be serious problems for them today, though I do expect them to be ready come game time.

Albania also needs to be worried about their lack of ability to take their chances, because it`s no use playing good football is you can`t score when you get the chance. Their lack of experience hurt them so far.

Both teams need to win, but I doubt the game will be open, as falling down 0-1 would be a disaster for either side. I expect a close match, a 50-50 contest in which I would actually give Albania a small edge based on what we saw from these two teams in Euro 2016. I`d estimate the chances at roughly 33% (RO) – 33% (Draw) – 34% (ALB).

With the above in mind, I think it`s fantastic that we can bet on two out of three possible outcomes with odds as high as 1.80. My tip will be Albania +0,5 handicap. Prediction: Romania – Albania 0-1.

Pick: Albania +0,5
Odds: 1.80 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.40
Event date: 19 June