Romania – Armenia

Romania and Armenia will square off in Group E of the World Cup 2018 qualifiers, with the two teams being virtually out of contention after claiming just 6 points each in the first six rounds.

Romanian football has been in a bad spot for the last decade or so, with the country lacking any kind of quality players, and this continued to be the case in the current qualifying campaign. The Romanians have just one win in the first 6 matches, but on the bright side that victory came against Armenia – and it was an impressive 5-0 road win as well, albeit Armenia had a man sent off in the first minute, so that helped. The Romanians will also draw confidence from the fact that they beat Chile 3-2 at home in a friendly game last time out.

Armenia had some good moments in this group, and some of their results raised a few eyebrows – even if the team failed to win more than 6 points so far. The visitors won 2 matches (both at home vs Montenegro and Kazakhstan), as well as putting in great performances on the road against Denmark (0-1) and Poland (1-2). On the other hand, they lost 0-5 at home to Romania and 1-4 in Montenegro (which was also their last match).

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Team news: Both teams are close to full strength here. Romania misses 2-3 players who are regularly called up (Sapunaru, Grigore, Latovlevic), but none of them are important players.

Romania is definitely not one of Europe’s good teams, but this will be one of the rare case in which they actually have more quality than the opponent – and when that is the case, Romania usually gets the job done, particularly when they have home court advantage.

The hosts still hold out small hopes for qualification, which are unrealistic, but they have them. It will be a do or die match for Romania here and they should feel confident at home, after a good win last time out against Chile, and remembering the 5-0 beating they handed Armenia earlier in this group.

Armenia proved they can be a threat on the road against very good teams like Poland or Denmark, but that doesn`t happen very often for them – and in the end they did lose both of those games. Last time out, they were torn to pieces in Montenegro, 1-4.

A desperate Romania should be able to do the job at home here. It will probably not be a blowout like it was in Armenia, but covering a 1 goal handicap should be within Romania’s possibilities.

My tip is Romania to win with a -1 asian handicap. I think it`s the best choice from all possible bets on Romania, and the odds look decent as well. Prediction: Romania – Armenia 2-0.

Pick: Romania (-1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.75 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6
Event date: 1 September