Romania – Canada

Romania and Canada will square off in a rugby test match set to be played at Arcul de Triumf Stadium in Bucharest. It will be a rematch of the epic 2015 World Cup match, in which Romania beat Canada 17-15, coming back from 0-15 down.

Romania is on the back of an exciting 23-10 win against USA last week in their first test match since the Summer. The Romanians played an excellent game, above expectations and were leading 20-0 at half time against a very good USA team, which brought its best players to Bucharest. The first half was absolutely superb from the Oaks, as they dominated USA in all aspects of the game and looked like a team capable to take on even the top rugby Nations. In the second half Romania lost steam and USA could have narrowed the gap more than the eventual margin of 13 points, but it was still a fully deserved win by the Romanians.

Canada performed admirably last week against Ireland, even though the Irish changed the entire team and fielded a second string starting XV after their win against New Zealand. The 21-52 scoreline does not do Canada justice, as they  actually challenged Ireland and stayed close for most of the match – until they collapsed physically and allowed Ireland to run away with the game at the end. It remains to be seen if the Canadians can recover in time for this match in Bucharest, a very important game for them both in terms of ranking points and getting revenge after Romania handed them the wooden spoon in the RWC 2015 group.

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Team news & lineups: Romania continues to miss a few of their key French based player, just like they did against USA. The Oaks will field a similar lineup to the one that beat the Americans. Canada might chose to rotate a little bit after losing a lot of energy last week against Ireland.

UPDATE: Lineups are out. Both teams have made 3 changes compared to last week. Romania will move Vlaicu from No.12 to No.10 which is a risky move. It`s a bit surprising for Canada, who I expected to rotate more after such a difficult game last week. I don`t think it`s a smart idea for them to go with the same players that were pushed to their limits by Ireland.

Romania: 1. Mihaita Lazar, 2. Eugen Capatana, 3. Alexandru Tarus, 4. Johan Van Heerden, 5. Marius Antonescu, 6. Viorel Lucaci, 7. Stelian Burcea (c), 8. Andrei Gorcioaia, 9. Florin Surugiu, 10. Florin Vlaicu, 11.Ionut Dumitru, 12. Vladut Popa, 13.Jack Umaga, 14. Tangimana Fonovai, 15. Catalin Fercu

Canada: 15. Matt Evans, 14. DTH van der Merwe, 13. Conor Trainor, 12. Ben Lesage, 11. Taylor Paris, 10. Connor Braid, 9. Gordon McRorie, 8. Admir Cejvanovic, 7. Matt Heaton, 6. Kyle Baillie, 5. Evan Olmstead, 4. Brett Beukeboom, 3. Jake Ilnicki, 2. Ray Barkwill, 1. Djustice Sears

Romania had a very good time against Canada recently, culminating with that 17-15 World Cup win last year. The Romanians won the previous 4 meetings, but the last 3 are the most relevant, as they were played in 2013, 2014 and 2015. Romania won those meetings 21-20, 18-9 and 17-15. However, Romania scored just 2 tries in those 3 matches, both in the last one, in the World Cup.

Romania has a much better kicking game than Canada, particularly when it comes to penalty taking and that has always been a huge advantage for the Oaks against the Canadians. Romania is also better in terms of physical strength, both in the scrum or when mauls are set. Canada is better on the wings, but Romania looked unusually great in that department last week against the USA – a USA team which fielded some super fast players from their Rugby 7’s team, players who should have dominated the wide game, but they could not do that at all against Romania.

The most important thing to consider ahead of this match is Canada’s fitness level and this will probably be their downfall in Bucharest. Not only does Canada have to travel all the way to Eastern Europe, but they are coming after a huge effort against Ireland. Playing against a Rugby powerhouse like Ireland always takes a lot from you, especially since it was clear that Canada gave their absolute all in that match. Add the fact that Romania is traditionally very strong at Arcul de Triumf Stadium and things are not looking good for the Canadians.

Canada already looked dead tired in the closing stages of the Ireland match, going from 21-28 to 21-52 in the last part of the game, including a few tries by Ireland in the last minutes.

Romania is far from perfect and their aging team will become a problem soon, but they should be fine for this match. Against USA, they showed that they can compete at the highest level even without a few of their best players and I reckon they don`t even need to repeat that performance in order to win today. A decent showing and accurate penalty kicking should me more than enough against a tired Canada.

At the moment Romania is the slightly better team, they play at home and at Arcul de Triumf stadium, where they rarely lose and, most importantly, Canada will not be at 100% for this match. However, I don`t expect too many points to be put on the scoreboard and the recent H2H matches have been close, so I will go with the straight win rather than the handicap.

The odds for the simple win are not too high, navigating around 1.40 but it`s still a playable price in my eyes, maybe higher than it should be. I think the odds will actually drop after more bookies will put them on offer. A 6,5 handicap is not a bad bet either, but my tip is Romania to win, with high stakes. Prediction: Romania – Canada 22 – 14.

Pick: Romania
Odds: 1.44 @ Unibet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 3.96
Event date: 19 November