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Romania, tied in points with Turkey, is in the race for the second place in the group D and they have two chances of getting it. If they win and Turkey doesn`t win against Netherlands, they are trough. If Turkey wins against Netherlands, Romania needs to recover a 4 goal deficit in the group standings. Say Turkey wins 1-0, Romania must win 5-0 to book the playoff spot.
The home team was not expected to do much damage in these qualies, as the romanians are rebuilding under controversial head coach Piturca Victor. Despite this, they managed to quickly jell a generally young squad and challenge the likes of Turkey in this group. Romania was particularly impressive in front of goal, scoring 17 goals in 9 matches so far (while also conceding 12) thanks to some young talents up-front like Maxim (Stuttgart), Torje (Espanyol), Keseru (Bastia) or Marica (Getafe). The hosts won 4-0 against Andorra friday on the road.
Estonia actually underachieved a little in this group, they got only one point aside from two wins against Andorra. Nevertheless, that point was against Netherlands two rounds ago. Estonia displayed a very poor defensive performance overall, conceding exactly 2 goals per game and losing 5-1 to Hungary in September. Still, the 2-2 draw against Netherlands showed they can also score.
Team news & lineups
Romania will miss captain and key center back Chiriches today. Otherwise, there are no new / notable absentees for the home team. The same can be said for Estonia, who also only misses a center-back (Piroja). Coach Piturca will field an offensive team for Romania in this one (one striker +2 natural strikers as offensive midfielders), which signals his intentions of winning big.
Romania: Tatarusanu – Matel, Gaman (Gardos), Goian, Rat – Lazar, Bourceanu – Bucur, Stancu, Maxim – Keseru (Marica)
Estonia: Pareiko – Kams, Reintam, Klavan, Teniste – Dmitrijev, Vunk – Ojamaa, Vassiljev, Kruglov – Zenjov
The Turkey Netherlands game is expected to be rather close, so the romanians will find themselves needing goals in order to survive. Their basic objective is at least a 2-0 win, since they absolutely have to get the three points without too much stress, and they will want to build an even bigger lead if Netherlands doesn`t run away early with the game in Turkey. Estonia with no motivation and an already poor defense is not much of a threat defensively, but they can score on counters when Romania will open up and leave spaces at the back – especially with the hosts boosting a slow and low-quality center-back pairing (Gaman – Goian).
It`s hard to pick a scoreline since it all depends on the Turkey – Netherlands game and Romania could even lose this one if Turkey wins big (due to morale), but I`ll go for Romania – Estonia 3-0 or 4-1. I have to agree that there is little value in the odds, but this should be a winning bet so I`m taking it with high stakes. I really can’t see any reason for this to go under 2,5. Romania has 5 overs in the last 6 official games and the circumstances here are clearly indicating a high scoring game.
Pick: over 2,5
Odds: 1.57 @ Winner
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 5.13
Event date: 15 October
Editor Facts
- Rostick is 2 for 3 in tips on Romania in the World Cup 2014 qualifying round
