Romania – Germany

Romania will host Germany on Saturday afternoon in the second round of the 2019 Rugby Europe Championship, the second tier tournament of European rugby, behind the Six Nations.

Romania started off with a 9-18 home defeat against rivals Georgia, a disappointing result for the Oaks, but not a surprising one. In fact, Romania competed better than expected after their disastrous 2018. The Romanians were playing well and were in good position this time last year, but after they were disqualified from the 2019 Rugby World Cup (due to fielding an ineligible player), all hell broke loose. Romania lost its coaching staff, lost a few key players due to retirement, and also fired the newly appointed coach after just a couple of months in charge. All this insecurity brought some horrible results in November, when the Romanians lost 5-31 against USA and 20-27 against Uruguay (both at home).

Germany finished 5th (out of 6) in the Rugby Europe Championship last year, but got an unexpected boost after Romania and Spain were disqualified. The Germans got the chance to compete in the final qualifying playoffs for the 2019 Rugby World Cup. They failed to qualify, losing big to Samoa, beating Hong Kong and losing to Canada. In this year`s Rugby Europe Championship they started with an ugly 22-29 loss in Belgium last week.

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Team news & lineups:

Romania lost a few key players compared to last week`s match against Georgia (Ursache, Badiu, Lazar, Fercu and Turashvili), while Motoc is still injured. But other key players (Tarus, Surugiu) return to the Starting XV, so all in all the lineup for this match looks good and is comparable to the one which took on Georgia.

Germany called up a few extra guys after last week`s defeat in Belgium, but this is not completely their best squad, especially as they will miss their talismanic playmaker Raynor Parkinson – a huge loss.

Romania: 1. Pristavita, 2. Capatana, 3. Tarus, 4. Van Heerden, 5. Antonescu, 6. Macovei (c), 7. Ion, 8. Gorin, 9. Surugiu, 10. Plai, 11. Dumitru, 12. Vlaicu, 13. Popa, 14. Zaharia, 15. Melinte

Germany: 1. Nostadt, 2. Haupt, 3. Fuchsel, 4. Marks, 5. Schroder, 6. Rupf, 7. Otto, 8. Ferreira, 9. Menzel, 10. Schulte, 11. Lammers, 12. Cameron-Dow, 13. Lammers, 14. Klewinghaus, 15. Aounallah

Romania didn`t look good coming into this 2019 REC, and the Oaks are trying to recover after the disastrous events of 2018. However, Romania is playing a pretty solid squad in this competition, despite being in rebuilding mode. There are plenty of experienced players and not so many youngsters in the squad for this clash.

Even with their problems, and even with Germany`s progress in rugby, there is still a massive difference between these two Nations.

Romania and Germany met 7 times in the modern era (since 1994 onwards). Germany does have one win, a shocking victory in 2017, which was one of those perfect storms, but Romania won the other 6 comfortably – including an 85-6 win last year (albeit Germany was missing many players). Excluding the H2H meetings in Hitler`s National Socialist era, the closest match Germany played in Romania was a 54 point loss!

Romania really is in a different class than Germany and considering that the Germans miss a few of their absolute best players, there`s virtually no chance for the visitors to be competitive here. Romania also looked pretty good last week, being highly competitive against a top class Georgian side, while Germany was poor in Belgium.

The fact that the Romanians are a hurt animal, desperate to get back on track, will not help Germany`s case. There`s no chance that Romania will underestimate the opposition, especially after that shock loss in Germany two years ago. The hosts are desperate for a win and will try to win by as much as possible to regain morale and confidence.

Look for the Romanians to dominate from start to finish and particularly their very strong pack should do massive damage to the Germans. Many scrums should end with a penalty for Romania, kick in touch, and then a lineout maul with a high probability of scoring.

The venue will also be an advantage for Romania, as the match will be played in Botosani, a place where many sports hungry fans are expected to attend and put pressure on the visitors, and Romania always played well in that region of the country. Weather will be cold but dry, which should suit the Romanians just fine.

My tip here is the Oaks to cover the 35,5 point handicap, I expect them to win by 50+ points. The bet is only available at a handful of bookies right now (1xbet, 22bet, marathonbet, betfair, betway), but it should be more widely available before game time. If the line changes I`d probably go as high as -42 points, but obviously with lower stakes (maybe 1 unit less for each extra point). But I reckon the line will probably stay put. Prediction: Romania – Germany 55 – 3.

Pick: Romania -35,5
Odds: 1.88 @ 1xBet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 8.80
Event date: 16 February