Romania – Spain

Romania and Spain will meet in the only high profile football match of the day, with Cluj Arena set to host the International Friendly.

The hosts are on the back of a 1-0 win over Lithuania a few days ago, a boring, ugly match decided by an individual execution. The Romanians were heavy favorites but the way the match was played wasn’t a surprise. Without having too much quality in the squad, Romania focuses on tactics and cohesion. The team relies on a very trustworthy defense, allowing just 2 goals in the Euro 2016 qualifiers. They don`t have too much up front and struggle to score even against lesser opposition like Lithuania.

Spain was not too impressive either in their midweek friendly, a 1-1 draw in Italy. The result was actually better than what Spain deserved, Italy had a lot of goal scoring chances and even led 1-0, while Spain did not create too much danger up front. It`s becoming a habit for Spain to be involved in low scoring matches. Their passing game always helped them stay safe at the back, but now they aren`t scoring as often as in the past without the likes of Villa, Torres, Xavi and others. Still, Spain clearly remains one of the best teams in the world and their recent record speaks for itself: 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in the 10 matches played since 2015. Spain also has not lost in the previous 8 matches.

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Team news & lineups:

Romania will obviously field the best available lineup here. They have problems at the left back and striker positions. Spain might rotate a bit, but all in all their first 11 should be similar to the one that started against Italy. Notable absentees include Iniesta, Ramos, Busquets and Cazorla.

Romania: Tatarusanu – Sapunaru, Chiriches, Grigore, Filip – Pintilii, Hoban – Torje, Stanciu, Stancu – Keseru

Spain: Casillas – Mario, Bartra, Pique, Alba – Sergi Roberto, Koke, Fabregas – David Silva, Aduriz, Morata

David De Gea stated that this will be a beautiful football match played for the fans, with many goals and goal scoring chances. Honestly, I have a lot of trouble believing him and I think this match will very likely prove to be low scoring. Stats and common sense suggest it.

The match with Italy was only the 2nd time when both teams scored in Spain’s last 13th matches. Spain kept a clean sheet in 9 of its last 10 wins. Also, 9 of Spain’s last 11 matches saw under 2,5 goals. These are pretty telling stats and the defensive Romania seems like the last team in the world to break the trend. The hosts scored just 11 goals in 10 matches in a very poor qualifying group. They scored more than 2 goals in a match just one time since 2013 – it was against Faroe, 3-0, late last year.

Romania’s defensive style and their very good back line, coupled with Spain’s patient passing game make this game perfect for under 2,5 goals. However, I think the best bet is going with Romania not to score. It covers the possibility of Romania having a very poor game, in which case Spain could win 3-0 (though it’s very unlikely). More importantly, the odds are much better than for the under and better than a bet on both teams to score – no.

Expect the hosts to sit back, while Spain will pass the ball around without urgency. I can`t see Romania getting too many shots at goal, they are very poor up front and won`t have too much of the ball. My tip is Romania not to score, I expect a 0-0 or 0-1 result here and I will invest high stakes, despite this only being a friendly. Prediction: Romania – Spain 0-1.

Pick: Romania to score – NO
Odds: 2.00 @ William Hill
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 9
Event date: 27 March