Romania – Uruguay

Romania will take on Uruguay on Saturday afternoon in Bucharest, in what will be the last test of the year for both Nations.

Romania is going through some of its most difficult times as a rugby nation. No later than 10 months ago it was all good, Romania was qualified yet again for the World Cup and the team looked solid, with recent wins over nations like Samoa, Georgia, USA or Canada. However, the Oaks were disqualified from the World Cup due to fielding an ineligible player, and that meant the end of the career for a few of the old stalwarts of the team. Former manager Howells (who did an exceptional job) also resigned, and now Romania is in rebuilding mode for RWC2023 with an unproven coach (Thomas Lievremont), and a bunch of young players from the domestic league.

Results so far this Autumn were not great, but the expectations weren`t high either. Romania “B” defeated Kenya 36-5, then Romania defeated Portugal 36-6 in a playoff to stay in the second tier of European rugby (the so called Six Nations B). The Romanians had to play that playoff due to the issues with disqualification from the RWC. Finally, the Romanians were destroyed 5-31 by the USA last week in the first real test for the new look Oaks.

Uruguay has seen steady progress in the last two years, and is now 18th in the World Rugby rankings, just one place below Romania. Los Teros don`t have that much quality in their squad, with only a very small number of players cometing at professional level abroad, but their team is decent. Uruguay played three tests this November, losing 21-45 against the Cardiff Blues, 5-21 against Ulster and 7-68 against Fiji (all tests being played in UK & Ireland).

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Team news & lineups:

Romania will be without many of its key players from France and England, but they will get a huge boost by the return of captain Mihai Macovei, who did not play against USA. On the other hand, Fercu will be a big loss. Uruguay also called up a young squad with only one player who competes at a high level (in France, in Pro D2).

Romania: 1. Badiu, 2. Căpățână, 3. Gordaș, 4. Moțoc, 5. Drenceanu, 6. Ion, 7. Macovei (c), 8. Chirica, 9. Surugiu, 10. Plai, 11. Dumitru, 12. Fonovai, 13. Popa, 14. Zaharia, 15. Melinte

Uruguay: 1. Sanguinetti, 2. Gattas, 3. Rombys, 4. Dotti, 5. Leindekar, 6. Gaminara (c), 7. Ormaechea, 8. Nieto, 9. Arata, 10. Berchesi, 11. Mieres, 12. Vilaseca, 13. Cat, 14. Leivas, 15. Silva

Romania does not currently have the same strength as in the last years, and in the match against the USA last week the bookies made a huge blunder in opening with the Romanians as favorites. Betting on USA at 2.40 was one of the best investments of the year, but unfortunately odds were posted very late.

This time around the bookies were much more cautious, and Romania has odds 1.10 to win. Actually, that might be a bit high.

Even in this rebuilding state, Romania still has much more quality than Uruguay. In the last five H2H meetings Romania won by an average margin of 26.2 points, and usually they didn`t have their best team available in those meetings either.

There is still a sensible difference between the two nations. Romania`s core group of guys from the domestic competition is still better than what Uruguay has, and the 3 players who play at the highest level in France (Macovei, Van Heerden, Motoc) will make the difference. Macovei`s comeback is definitely a huge plus for the Oaks. Although Romania loses on the other hand with Fercu`s absence, Macovei`s presence is more important than Fercu missing, as the captain also brings much needed leadership to this young group – something which was clearly missed against the USA.

You could see Uruguay`s limitations last week against Fiji. While Romania is not as strong as Fiji, losing 7-68 against the Islanders was a telling result, and you could see Uruguay being out of their depth against a very strong team, but not a Tier 1 team.

Romania`s pack has also proved that it remains at a very high level and should dominate Los Teros here, getting good position and milking penalties. The Oaks also have a stronger bench, especially with Van Heerden set to come in in the second half.

All in all Romania should have enough to win this by 20+ points, so my tip will be the Oaks to cover the 16,5 point handicap. The line is currently available only at a handful of bookies, but there will be more options closer to game time. The line should probably be around 20-22 points here, and I`d bet as high as 19.5 if it changes. Prediction: Romania – Uruguay 33 – 11.

Pick: Romania -16,5
Odds: 1.91 @ 22Bet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.28
Event date: 24 November