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Arcul de Triumf Stadium in Bucharest will host the meeting between Romania and Team USA, an evenly matched clash that might well be decided by just a few points.
Once again, Romania is one of the only Top 20 Nations that fails to secure a test match against a Tier 1 side – as they will meet USA, Canada and Uruguay in these late year tests, all set to be played in Bucharest. The Romanians had a pretty good World Cup last year, avoiding humiliations against France and Ireland, beating Canada by 2 points and losing by just 10 against Italy. However, the Romanians were again dominated by Georgia in the European Nations Cup this year, finishing second and a long way behind their rivals. Last time Romania played was in a friendly tournament during the summer when they easily defeated Namibia, Uruguay and Argentina XV in Bucharest.
USA had a much weaker Rugby World Cup than Romania last year, losing all matches in a group with South Africa, Scotland, Japan and Samoa. Nevertheless, USA Rugby is on a serious uptrend right now, with more and more interest and money being invested in the sport. As such, the USA has benefited from some matches against elite teams recently, including a game against the Maori All Blacks (New Zealand players with Maori descendance) last week. The Americans were destroyed 7-54, but it was a brilliant test for them against a team that could pretty much beat any side in the world. Fact is that Team USA is getting better, with a lot of players now signed by top clubs in both hemispheres.
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Romania will miss a number of key players coming into this clash, including stars Valentin Ursache and Andrei Ursache. The Oaks will field only 3 players that play their rugby abroad. Meanwhile, USA will field players that are competing in the Aviva Premiership, the Pro 12 or the Super Rugby, along with players from the domestic championship.
Romania: 1. Mihaita Lazar, 2. Eugen Capatana, 3. Alexandru Tarus, 4. Johan Van Heerden, 5. Marius Antonescu, 6. Viorel Lucaci, 7. Vasile Rus, 8. Stelian Burcea (c), 9. Florin Surugiu, 10. Jody Rose, 11.Ionut Dumitru, 12. Florin Vlaicu, 13.Jack Umaga, 14. Tangimana Fonovai, 15. Catalin Fercu
USA: 1. Titi Lamoistele, 2. Joe Taufetee, 3. Chris Baumann, 4. Nate Brakley, 5. Nick Siveta, 6. Todd Clever (c), 7. Al McFarland, 8. Andrew Durutalo, 9. Nate Aupgsperger, 10. Will Holder, 11. Martin Iosefo, 12. Thretton Palemo, 13. Bryce Cambell, 14. Blaine Scully, 15. Maddison Hughes
Romania and USA met 7 times so far and Romania claimed a single win. The last two meetings were played, just like this one, at the Arcul de Triumf Stadium and USA won 34-3 (in 2012) and 27-17 (in 2014).
Romania and USA are pretty similar in terms of level of play right now, though USA is clearly the team on the rise between the two. The visitors also have a few difference makers that Romania doesn’t have, guys who are playing at the top level in Rugby’s top competitions. Romania is a bit more balanced overall, but with 12 domestic based players in the starting lineup today, the Oaks might be in trouble here against what seems to be a more talented USA team.
Romania relies on a nucleus of veterans which play in France and when everybody is healthy and responds to selection, Romania is a pretty solid side, as it was seen in the previous World Cup. However, there are no replacements for those guys and no young quality coming trough the ranks, so Romania loses a lot of strength with each player that misses. A perfect example was the last match in the European Nations Cup this year, when Romania was missing a number of key players and was humiliated by rivals Georgia 9-38!
Romanian rugby is stagnant, at best, at the moment. National champions Timisoara Saracens, which provide 7 out of the 15 starters today, are getting absolutely destroyed in the Challenge Cup and the National team is totally dependent on their France – based players in order to be competitive at the top level in rugby – but they do not have them all available today.
USA seems to be in a better moment right now and they will be confident given the recent H2H with Romania. They suffered a heavy loss last week against the Maori All Blacks, but that experience against an elite team will help them a lot coming into this match. Meanwhile, Romania misses a few key players and most of the guys in the starting lineup are lacking form and confidence.
What works in Romania’s advantage is the fact that they have always been strong at Arcul De Triumf stadium in Bucharest and the fact that USA had to deal with a long travel to Eastern Europe. However, USA did just fine in recent visits to Bucharest.
My tip is USA to cover the 7,5 point handicap. Both teams rely a lot on physicality and less on speed or wing play. Expect a slow match with a lot of set pieces and not too many points on the board – which will favor USA covering the spread. I can see Romania edging this at home via penalties and maybe one try, but I would not be surprised at all if USA claims victory. A bet on the visitors to cover definitely has value. Prediction: Romania – USA 19 – 18.
Pick: USA +7,5
Odds: 1.95 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.65
Event date: 12 November
