Molleker – Kovalik

Rudolf Molleker and Jozef Kovalik will square off on Wednesday in the second round at the ATP 500 event in Hamburg, played on red clay.

The 17 year old Molleker is ranked just inside the Top 300 and is one of the brightest prospects of German tennis. The teenager played only his fifth ever ATP main draw match in the first round against Ferrer, and had only one ATP level win up to that point. However, Molleker was able to stun the experienced Ferrer 7-5 5-7 6-3. Even if Ferer is currently in horrible shape, it was still impressive for Molleker to win against such a savvy veteran.

Kovalik is in excellent form right now, playing some of his best tennis. The Slovakian reached the Braunschweig challenger final three weeks ago without losing a set (def. Cuevas along the way), eventually narrowly losing to Hanfmann in the last act. After taking a break last week, Kovalik came here to Hamburg and already won 3 matches, as he had to play qualifications. Kovalik defeated Guttau 2-0, Monteiro 2-1 and was brilliant in a 6-2 6-4 first round victory against Dzumhur.

This will be the first ever meeting between these two competitors. Both are good clay court players, so the surface won`t be a particular advantage for one or the other. The young Molleker will have home court advantage, but that`s rarely a big deal in tennis.

Kovalik is playing some really good stuff right now, he won 7 of his last 8 matches and lost just three sets in this timespan. He has been solid here in Hamburg over the last few days and beating Dzumhur so convincingly in the first round tells you that Kovalik could have a great week here.

The Slovakian will have to be careful against the exuberance of the young Molleker, who is coming after the biggest win of his career. But if Kovalik continues to play at his recent level (and why shouldn`t he?), he should have the tools to dispatch the German teenager. Molleker might have beaten Ferrer, but he did show weaknesses in that match, and Ferrer was just horrible – like he has been the entire year, and especially lately (lost 7 of his last 9 matches).

I reckon it`s a smart choice to ride with the in form player here, and odds on Kovalik are just good enough for me to stake 8 units on him. Prediction: Rudolf Molleker – Jozef Kovalik 6-7 3-6.

Pick: Kovalik
Odds: 1.45 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 3.60
Event date: 25 July