Russia – Samoa

Russia and Samoa will meet on Tuesday in Pool A of the 2019 Rugby World Cup.

Russia came into this tournament as one of the worst teams in the competition, and they didn`t even qualify for the World Cup, but took advantage of Romania’s disqualification for fielding an ineligible player in the qualifiers. However, the Russians put on a spirited performance in their first match on Friday against Japan, losing by a very respectable margin of 20 points (10-30) against the home nation. Although Japan was really sloppy and far from its best, Russia put on a big effort and did a lot of things well.

It`s fair to say Samoa has been average of the past few years, alternating wins and losses with other Tier 2 sides, with nothing to write home about. This year Samoa only finished 3rd in the Pacific Nations Cup, beating Tonga but losing close games to USA and Fiji. In their only notable pre World Cup test, the Samoans lost 15-34 to Australia in Sydney a couple of weeks ago.

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Team news & lineups:

The Russians chose to field the exact same lineup which lost against Japan, while Samoa will field a strong starting XV, arguably the best one available – although captain Jack Lam is out injured.

Samoa: 15 Tim Nanai-Williams, 14 Ah See Tuala, 13 Alapati Leiua, 12 Rey Lee-Lo, 11 Ed Fidow, 10 Tusi Pisi, 9 Dwayne Polataivao, 8 Afaesetiti Amosa, 7 TJ Ioane, 6 Chris Vui (c), 5 Kane Le’aupepe, 4 Teofilo Paulo, 3 Michael Alaalatoa, 2 Motu Matu’u, 1 Logovii Mulipola.

Russia: 15 Vasily Artemyev (c), 14 German Davydov, 13 Vladimir Ostroushko, 12 Dmitry Gerasimov, 11 Kirill Golosnitskiy, 10 Yury Kushnarev, 9 Vasily Dorofeev, 8 Nikita Vavilin, 7 Tagir Gadzhiev, 6 Vitaly Zhivatov, 5 Bogdan Fedotko, 4 Andrey Ostrikov, 3 Kirill Gotovtsev, 2 Stanislav Selskii, 1 Valery Morozov.

Russia will have a big problem in this game, which is the fact that they have to play Samoa just 4 days after taking on Japan in the World Cup opener. That`s an extremely short turnaround, especially since the Russians will field the exact same starting lineup, and Samoa will be rested having not played any games.

A four day turnaround is not quite enough time to recover, especially for weaker teams which don`t have the same level of fitness as the big boys. On top of this, Russia already looked dead tired in the last 25 minutes against Japan, something that even the players and coaches admitted. This will be a real issue and a potential difference maker in this match.

Samoa will definitely be pumped up to win this match with a bonus point, given that this is one of the most balanced groups in World Cup history. Given Scotland’s poor performance against Ireland over the weekend, Japan, Samoa and Scotland all have legitimate chances to finish second.

But covering a 30 point spread will not be easy. Even if the Russians might be the worst team in the World Cup, they did show heart and even some quality against Japan. And, more importantly, Samoa are no World beaters. They have just one 30+ points win in the last 8 years (against Germany in 2018), and they played plenty of teams of Russia’s caliber during this timespan.

Without a doubt, the 30,5 handicap set by the bookies seems too high here. Samoa is not New Zealand or England, not even Italy or Japan, to be given such spreads. But the question about Russia’s fitness is a real one. If their legs give out, Samoa could go on a scoring frenzy, virtually unopposed in the last part of the game.

With the above arguments in mind, my tip will be Russia to cover the +15,5 point half time handicap. It is totally illogical for the half time spread to be half of the full time spread, considering that Russia’s fatigue is a big, unquestionable factor. It really looks like the HT spread on this game was simply created automatically by the software, with no human input.

Russia should be able to play a strong physical game and give Samoa a fight until their legs give out. On the same logic, another interesting bet would be the second half to be the higher scoring half at roughly the same odds (slightly higher). I`d take that with 7-8 units if the first half spread wouldn`t be available, but personally I will stick with the handicap on Russia at half time. Prediction: Russia – Samoa 11 – 38 (6 – 14 half time).

Pick: Russia +15,5 half time
Odds: 1.80 @ Bwin
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.20
Event date: 24 September