Russia – Serbia

Istanbul will host the second semifinal of the 2017 Eurobasket, with Russia and Serbia set to square off for a place in the last act. The Serbians are rated as 5.5 point spread favorites by the bookmakers.

Russia wasn`t very highly rated coming into the tournament, not having quite the same caliber of talent as in the last years (Mozgov being their only NBA player). The Russians finished 3rd in Group D (although they lost just one game), but their best performances came in the KO round. Russia played a brilliant game to defeat the strong Croatia 101-78, and went on to recover a double digit deficit in the quarterfinals against Greece, winning 74-69.

Serbia entered the Eurobasket as one of the top favorites, despite missing a few key pieces. The Serbians had to play without three of their main guys, all NBA players: Teodosic (Clippers), Jokic (Nuggets) and Bjelica (Wolves). Nevertheless, they still have a very strong team, still with two NBA players in their ranks, Marjanovic and Bogdanovic. The Serbians lost just one game so far, but that was actually a 72-75 defeat against Russia in the Group stages. Later on the in the KO rounds, Serbia defeated Hungary (86-78) and Italy (83-67).

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Russia has played very good team basketball at this Eurobasket, and their top stars Shved and Mozgov stepped it up when they needed to. The Russians defeated higher rated teams multiple times during this Eurobasket, including Serbia, and it wouldn`t be a shock if they pulled it off again. The way they outplayed and dismantled Croatia in the quarterfinals was really impressive.

While Russia exceeded expectations, it`s fair to say that Serbia was a bit below what was expected from them, despite reaching this stage and only losing once. To be fair, expectations might have been too high from the start.

Fact is that Serbia is missing three key players, including their two best players Teodosic and Jokic. Teodosic has been the engine for this Serbian team for years, and they struggled to execute their gameplan without him. Many of their wins were close, and they weren`t great in the KO stages.

Most of Serbia’s success came from their presence under the rim, where they dominated most opposition with their height and power, particularly with the help of the 222cm Detroit Pistons center Boban Marjanovic. But Russia has Timofey Mozgov to deal with Marjanovic, a luxury other teams did not have. This matchup could be a problem for the Serbs, as they might not be able to clearly dominate in the paint as they usually do, and it might be one of the reasons for which they lost to Russia in the group stage.

Russia’s teammorwork could be too much for this shorthanded Serbian side here. Expect a close match, just like in the group stages, which could go either way. My tip is Russia to cover the 6 point (asian) handicap. Prediction: Russia – Serbia 78 – 76.

Pick: Russia +6
Odds: 1.87 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.96
Event date: 15 September