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Liga 1 newcomers Sageata Navodari will host romanian giants Dinamo Bucharest. The visitors are much seasoned than their opponents, but Dinamo is currently in rebuilding mode after some financial problems last year.
Sageata achieved promotion to the first tier of romanian football this season and they started the league surprisingly well, cementing a place in the top half early on. However, Sageata quickly faded away and at the moment the team is 13th in the standings, just one point above the relegation zone. The hosts lost 4 out of their last 5 matches and are in terrible form. This comes as little surprise, as they were always fancied to relegate and are now playing at their true potential after the good start. The quality in the squad is very low, even for romanian standards. Sageata is on the back of a 4-0 defeat against relegation rivals Chiajna.
Dinamo Bucharest changed ownership in the summer and with a new financial long-term plan, many high profile players have left the club. However a couple of solid starters are still at the club, including some regular national team players, and some talented youngsters have been promoted in order to build a squad for the future. Dinamo was expected to struggle early on, but they played extremely poor and manager Multescu was sacked. Youth team coach Stoican was brought in, and with additional time for the squad to find some chemistry, Dinamo started to improve and is currently in a great run of form with 5 wins in the last 6 competitive matches in Liga 1 and the Romanian Cup. Dinamo is on the back of a solid 1-0 home win over a good Gaz Metan Medias side. However, the Red Dogs have failed to find their rhythm on the road, having a single win and scoring just 5 goals in 7 games played away. Dinamo is currently 6th in the standings and needs a win badly to remain in contention for an European placement, which is their objective for the season.
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The two teams are mostly fit for this game. Sageata misses 2-3 players, Dinamo is actually at full strength if we rule out long-term injured Collins Fai will miss regulars Collins Fai and Tucudean. I can see Dinamo starting with the following lineup:
Dinamo: Balgradean – Rus, Durimel, Grigore, Grecu – Boubacar, Thicot – Lazar, Matei, Curtean – Thomas (Rotariu)
Sageata won`t have too much of an advantage playing a home, being a poorly-supported team and not playing their games on their own stadium. On the other hand, they could get an edge because of the pitch condition, which will be in a very poor state and along with the expected bad weather will favor a destructive game.
After staying away from Dinamo`s matches for most of the season so far (see teams to avoid betting on – though the article proved to be wrong so far), I will bet on the Red Dogs for the second consecutive time. They really seem to be getting better and better, while Sageata is a very poor team in catastrophic form. Dinamo is still a little bit inconsistent due to the youngsters in the squad, they are playing poor on the road and the pitch will favor the hosts, but despite these downsides, I can see the visitors getting their second away win of the season. The gap in quality and form is just too big here and the odds should not bee over 2.00. There is value in these odds for sure. My pick is an away win and I can see something like Sageata Navodari – Dinamo Bucharest 0-2. I am always objective with my picks, but you still should know that I am a Dinamo Bucharest fan.
Pick: Dinamo Bucharest
Odds: 2.07 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.56
Event date: 30 November
Editor Facts
- Rostick is 3 for 5 in picks involving Dinamo Bucharest this season
Very nice analysis, I agree 99% with it, I would only change Boubacar with Elton in the starting line-up as it seems more likely considering how well he played last round. Should be a tough match for us but I think a win at 1 goal difference is more than likely, however as you mentioned, the field and weather conditions advantage the home side, which is why (coupled with Dinamo’s poor away form) the bookies are giving these odds. Clear value here, no doubt, bet Dinamo!
I think Stoican likes to rotate the squad and he knows Boubacar does not like the bench AT ALL, so my guess is he will field him instead of Elton, but of course nobody knows. The lineups I put in (like every other website out there) are estimative, as you can never know them for sure 1 day prior to the match.
I think Stoican has a great accomplishment in managing to cement a starting line up, something that Multescu failed to do. Indeed Stoican still rotates some players (especially Boubakar & Elton) but I’d say 80% of the team is standard at the moment which I think is great! Should see a win today!