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The grass court season on the ATP world tour is finally underway and one of the first main draw matches will see Sam Groth taking on Illya Marchenko in the ATP Stuttgart first round.
Big Sam Groth had a very disappointing season so far, particularly in its first part, as he lost 13 of the last 15 matches of the year. He showed small improvement lately and will definitely hope to turn things around on grass, which is is best surface – mainly because of his huge serve creating havoc on the fast green. He already played a tournament on grass, at Manchester challenger and got two wins under his belt against Broady and Novikov (both in 3 sets), before losing 2-6 7-6 to Kudla in the quarterfinals.
Illya Marchenko is in poor form himself, losing his last three matches against rather modest opposition. However, he had a much better season overall than Groth and will hope to get back into form on grass, a surface he likes a bit more than clay – even if hard courts are his specialty. Unlike Groth, Marchenko has not played on the green this season, so he will have a disadvantage from this point of view, especially as grass is a special surface for which you always need to adapt. He did train a few days in Stuttgart though, which will help.
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The only Head 2 Head meeting took place this year in Memphis (indoor hard) and Marchenko won 7-6 7-6 in a match that featured ZERO breaks of serve. With today`s match being played on grass, these guys should feel pretty confident about keeping their serve.
Neither of these guys is playing great tennis at this moment and both will see this match as a huge opportunity to get an ATP level win under their belt, while also kick starting their grass court season. As such, I expect both Groth and Marchenko to play very safe, concentrating on keeping serve, as we know how important that is on grass. I can see both of them really focusing on serve in the first stage of the match.
With Big Sam holding one of the biggest serves on tour (he still has the unofficial speed record) and with Marchenko owning a pretty good serve as well, I can see a tiebreak happening in the first set. Odds of 3.25 are definitely worth a shot. It`s crazy to put up such a high price on a first set tiebreak in a Sam Groth match on grass – especially since I feel there are circumstances in this match that increase the chances for a 7-6 / 6-7 to happen, like the previous H2H match this year or the fact that both players are desperate to get a win.
Definitely some value to be taken here, so my tip is a first set tiebreak to occur. In terms of the final result I`m giving the edge to Groth. Even though Marchenko is having a better season, big Sam is an ace on grass and he has match practice on the surface. I can see Groth winning in 3 sets, but I`m not betting on it – I`m sticking with reasonable stakes on the first set tiebreak. Prediction: Sam Groth – Illya Marchenko 7-6 4-6 7-6.
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Pick: First set tiebreak – Yes
Odds: 3.25 @ Bwin
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 11.25
Event date: 6 June
