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The match between Sam Querrey and Jo Wilfried Tsonga was interrupted Wednesday due to darkness and will resume today. The current score is Querrey – Tsonga 6-4 6-7 7-6 3-6 9-9, with Querrey serving. I will be short and concise here, the motives for the bet are clear and do not require any pre-game analysis, since the match is actually about to end.
Now, one thing is clear: neither player was too impressive so far in 2014 and neither player was dominant in the first round: Querrey got past Klahn in 4 sets, Tsonga got past Melzer in 5 sets. Despite all these, I have to say that both guys played excellent tennis throughout this match, at least the last three sets (I did not see the first one). Tsonga had odds as low as 1.30 prior to the game but Querrey matched him in every department and was actually better for long stretches of the match.
Coming into the 5th set Tsonga had the momentum and again the bookmakers made him a big favorite, but Querrey handled the situation very well and was the more dangerous player in the decider, putting pressure on Tsonga’s serve and even reaching match point. Overall, both players were very solid on serve in the 5th set.
Listen, Querrey has at least 50% chances here. The two have been dead even for the whole match (I wouldn’t have picked this if I wouldn’t have watched the clash) and there`s no way Tsonga is a 1.65 favorite at 9-9 in the decider. It can go either eay, but Querrey also has the crucial advantage of serving first, so actually that makes him a slight favorite to get the win – especially given the fact that he was a little better in the decider. There are only a handful of bookmakers still having the game on offer after it was interrupted, but the 2.25 on Querrey to win at Bwin is great value, since I am rating Sam’s chances at about 55%, a logical analysis I`d say. Obviously, my tip is Big Sam to prevail. No correct score prediction needed, but I`d say Querrey wins in less than 30 minutes.
Pick: Querrey
Odds: 2.25 @ Bwin
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 8.75
Event date: 26 June
