Samoa – Fiji

Samoa and Fiji will square off Friday night / Saturday morning (European time) in the last match of the 2017 Pacific Rugby Nations Cup, with plenty at stake for both teams.

Samoa needs to lose by less than 7 points to qualify for the 2019 World Cup without having to go into the playoffs, and needs to win with an offensive bonus point in order to win the 2017 Pacific Nations Cup. Fiji is already qualified for RWC 2019 and needs a draw (probably a 3 point loss would do as well) to win the 2017 Pacific Nations Cup.

Samoa has been on a bit of a downtrend recently, they are now the lowest ranked team in the Pacific Islands and a loss today would see them drop to 16th in the World Rankings, behind Romania. The last couple of years have been a struggle for the Islanders and 2017 has continued that trend. In the 3 matches played this year, Samoa lost 78-0 (!!) to New Zealand, 19-17 to Wales “B” and 30-26 against Tonga. They can still win the Pacific Nations Cup if they claim victory and score 4+ tries in this match, but the main objective is to qualify for RWC 2019 – to do that, they need a draw, but will very likely qualify even if they lose by a maximum of 7 points.

Fiji already booked its place in the World Cup based on the results obtained over the last couple of years, and will come to Samoa looking to secure the Pacific Nations Cup title, which they can do with a draw or any kind of win. Fiji is the best team in the Pacific Islands and had a (very) solid 2017 so far. They played 4 matches, losing 37-14 to Australia in the first, but winning the next three against Scotland “B” (27-22), Italy (22-19) and Tonga (14-10).

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Team news & lineups:

Samoa will make three changes to the lineup that lost two weeks ago in Tonga. Fiji has named a very strong lineup as well, although they miss a few important players like Botia, Ravai, Yato or Nadolo – still, it is mostly the same team that played successfully in all the tests this year.

Samoa: 15 Tim Nanai-Williams, 14 Alapati Leiua, 13 Kieron Fonotia, 12 Reynold Lee-Lo, 11 David Lemi (c), 10 Tusiata Pisi, 9 Kahn Fotualii, 8 Faifili Levave, 7 Jack Lam, 6 Piula Faasalele, 5 Faatiga Lemalu, 4 Chris Vui, 3 Paul Alo-Emile, 2 Elia Elia, 1 Jordan Lay

Fiji: 15 Timoci Nagusa, 14 Vereniki Goneva, 13 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 12 Jale Vatubua, 11 Patrick Osborne, 10 Ben Volavola, 9 Henry Seniloli, 8 Nemani Nagusa, 7 Akapusi Qera (c), 6 Dominiko Waqaniburotu, 5 Leone Nakarawa, 4 Tevita Cavubati, 3 Manasa Saulo, 2 Tuapati Talemaitoga, 1 Campese Maáfu

Fiji is definitely a better team than Samoa, but right now the two sides also find themselves at opposite spectrums of confidence. Samoa is sinking lower and lower, while Fiji is the 10th ranked team in the World, beating at the door of Tier 1 status.

The difference in confidence can also be seen from the way these two teams perform in close matches. Samoa is losing pretty much every close game they are involved in, while Fiji does the exact opposite, winnining most of them. That speaks volumes about morale and will give Fiji an extra chance if this game ends up being tight in the last 20 minutes or so – which might be the case.

Samoa does have the advantage of playing at home and having an extra week of rest, both of which will count. They also have much more to play for with their RWC qualification in the balance, which is the only reason for which they are favorites in this game.

However, Fiji has plenty to play for as well, and in rugby teams always give their best effort no matter the circumstances. When it`s all said and done Fiji is simply a better team in (much) better form and should take care of a Samoa team lacking in confidence.

Look for an intense game with plenty of battles and a possible sense of equilibrium, but Fiji’s brilliance with their offloads and ability to build quick attacks will make the difference, as they can score points on you in an instant – as opposed to Samoa, who will likely have to work extremely hard for every point they score.

For extra security I will back Fiji Draw No bet instead of tipping them to win straight up, because it could be relatively close, and both teams would reach their objective with a draw. Pinnacle with great odds on this bet, but anything over 2.00 is good value. Prediction: Samoa – Fiji 18 – 22.

Pick: Fiji DNB
Odds: 2.21 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 10.89
Event date: 15 July