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The winner between Samoa and Japan will have the 3rd place in Pool B virtually guaranteed, but more importantly will have a fair shot at reaching the Rugby World Cup quarterfinals – which would be a huge performance for either side. Both teams have 1 win so far, albeit Japan’s victory over South Africa was far more impressive than Samoa’s hard fought victory over the United Stated.
Samoa entered the tournament with great expectations. Despite losing the Pacific Cup to Fiji, Samoa was highly rated to top Japan and USA in this group. However, an unimpressive victory over the USA (25-16) was followed by a destruction at the hands of South Africa (6-46), who was hurt in pride after losing to Japan. Surely Samoa needs to pick up its level, because they weren`t quite at their best in the first two matches.
After shocking the world by beating South Africa 34-32, Japan quickly proved that one win doesn`t suddenly make you contenders. The Asians suffered from both mental and physical hangover, but also from lack of quality, to get destroyed by Scotland in their next outing, 10-45. The physical struggles were the most obvious ones, as Japan had a decent first half, but collapsed in the second. Now, with plenty of time to rest, Japan will hope to raise its level again and get closer to what they showed in the first match, as opposed to the disastrous performance against Scotland.
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Team news & lineups:
Both teams will field the best lineups, but Japan’s key No.8 Amanaki Mafi will be left on the bench due to not fully recovering from the injury suffered against Scotland.
Samoa: 15 Tim Nanai-Williams, 14 Ken Pisi, 13 Paul Perez, 12 Johnny Leota, 11 Alesana Tuilagi, 10 Tusi Pisi, 9 Kahn Fotuali’i, 8 Faifili Levave, 7 TJ Ioane, 6 Ofisa Treviranus (c), 5 Kane Thompson, 4 Teofilo Paulo, 3 Census Johnston, 2 Ole Avei, 1 Sakaria Taulafo
Japan: 15 Ayumu Goromaru, 14 Akihito Yamada, 13 Male Sau, 12 Harumichi Tatekawa, 11 Kotaro Matsushima, 10 Kosei Ono, 9 Fumiaki Tanaka, 8 Ryu Koliniasi Holani, 7 Michael Broadhurst, 6 Michael Leitch (c), 5 Hitoshi Ono, 4 Luke Thompson, 3 Kensuke Hatakeyama, 2 Shota Horie, 1 Keita Inagaki
Having seen these two sides in both their matches, you have to feel that Samoa can certainly do better, while Japan reached its maximum level and even surpassed it in the South Africa game. Japan is a decent, hard working side with a good mentality, but they are not at the same level of Samoa and miracles do not happen every day. Japan hasn’t transformed into a top side just by beating South Africa and we saw that very well in the match against Scotland.
Samoa will have a point to prove after losing by 40 points against South Africa, just like the Springboks had a point to prove in that game after losing to Japan. I expect the Pacific side to be focused from the outset and play their best game of the tournament. It would be more than enough to cover the tiny spread set by the bookies. My tip is Samoa to win with a 6,5 point handicap. Reasonable stakes though, as we are warned about Japan’s “never say die” attitude. The under could also be a good choice, with a line set high at 48,5 points, but the handicap bet on Samoa seems safer. Odds are increasing on Samoa, so there is no hurry to take this bet. Prediction: Samoa – Japan 27-15.
Pick: Samoa -6,5
Odds: 1.81 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 5.67
Event date: 3 October
