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Scotland will take the field against Samoa knowing that a win will secure a place in the quarterfinals, while any other result will likely knock them out of the World Cup. The Samoans will probably finish 4th regardless of the result, but they will try to improve the poor impression they left in the Rugby World Cup.
Samoa was underwhelming so far. With an approachable group, the Pacific vice champions stood a fighting chance to qualify, but they were not able to get it going and it was obvious right from the start. An unconvincing 25-16 win over the USA was followed by a 40 point blowout against South Africa and a horrible 5-26 loss to Japan. Samoa has the talent, but they were unable to show it so far and coaching might be the problem.
Scotland finally managed to put together a run of solid matches after years and years of under performing. Vern Cotter really seems to be the right man for the job and signs of progress were visible earlier in the year as well, where, despite another wooden spoon in the Six Nations, Scotland played well and did not deserve the last place. Here in the RWV the Scots won easily against USA and Japan, putting in a decent display against South Africa as well (16-34).
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Team news & lineups:
Samoa will make 7 changes compared to their last match, while Scotland will make 8. Tuilagi is suspended and won`t be in the lineup for the Pacific team.
Samoa: 15 Tim Nanai-Williams, 14 Paul Perez, 13 George Pisi, 12 Rey Lee-Lo, 11 Fa’atoina Autagavaia, 10 Tusi Pisi, 9 Kahn Fotuali’i (c), 8 Alafoti Faosiliva, 7 Jack Lam, 6 Maurie Faasavalu, 5 Kane Thompson, 4 Teofilo Paulo, 3 Census Johnston, 2 Ma’atulimanu Leiataua, 1 Sakari Taulafo.
Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Tommy Seymour, 13 Mark Bennett, 12 Matt Scott, 11 Sean Maitland, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Greig Laidlaw (c), 8 David Denton, 7 John Hardie, 6 Ryan Wilson, 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Richie Gray, 3 WP Nel, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Alasdair Dickinson.
Replacements: 16 Fraser Brown, 17 Gordon Reid, 18 Jon Welsh, 19 Tim Swinson, 20 Josh Strauss, 21 Henry Pyrgos, 22 Peter Horne, 23 Sean Lamont.
Everything about this match seems to scream a comfortable Scotland win and the odds have plummeted on the Brits. However, an upset is far from impossible. As it is always the case in Rugby, the Scots are overrated and the 1.15 price for their win is crazy.
Scotland is well known for collapsing in key moments and it`s really hard to predict if the pressure today will have positive or negative effects. Samoa has the talent to beat the Scots, there is no contesting that and they will surely give it their all in order to end the Rugby World Cup on a high, making up for the poor performances so far. The lack of pressure might allow them to play their game and if Samoa finally clicks, Scotland could be in trouble.
If Samoa plays its game and Scotland will not be confident under pressure, the Pacific side can certainly win. My tip is Samoa +6,5 handicap, just in case they put on a good fight but fall short against the motivated Scots – which is what I expect will happen. Prediction: Samoa – Scotland 19-21.
Pick: Samoa +6,5
Odds: 3.00 @ Unibet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 14
Event date: 10 October
