Spurs – Hawks

San Antonio Spurs will host the Atlanta Hawks in a very interesting matchup – betting wise, with the odds going all over the place.

Spurs will miss their 2nd best player, LaMarcus Aldridge, along with starting PG Tony Parker and backup PG Dejounte Murray. The leader of the team, Leonard, is questionable, but reports in the last hour or so are suggesting he might play, so odds on Spurs have gone downhill.

San Antonio (51-14, 24-6 home) is in a good moment right now. A top 3 team in the league, the Spurs have won 10 of the last 11 matches and are just 1 game behind the Golden State Warriors for the 1st seed in the Western Conference. The Spurs beat the Warriors by 22 in the last game on Saturday, though both teams were without 4 of their best players.

Atlanta (37-29, 18-14 away) is playing good basketball, winning 3 matches in a row and are just 1 game behind Toronto for the 4th seed in the Eastern Conference. The Hawks know the importance of that potential 4th seed and will feel they have a great opportunity to get closer tonight in a match they would normally lose – as San Antonio is dealing with injuries.

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Hawks are a competent team but they would lose in San Antonio if the hosts were at full strength. However, that is not the case. Spurs will miss two of their best players in Parker and Aldridge, plus Murray, that`s a lot to overcome even for the team with the best bench in the NBA. They miss two point guards in a matchup against one of the most in form point guards in the league, Atlanta’s Schroeder.

The odds for San Antonio have gone way too low at the news that Leonard might play. First of all, even with Leonard fit they are still in for a tough game against the Hawks. Secondly, it`s not even a sure thing that Leonard will play. The price dropping is a classic case of a market overreaction.

Smart punters went on San Antonio immediately after news surfaced that Leonard might play and that created a domino effect, with everybody going on Spurs despite the fact that the odds eventually dropped way too much (from 1.50 to 1.35). I wouldn`t be surprised if the odds start going in a different direction soon (except if Leonard is declared fit).

Hawks are a solid, in form and well coached team, so you can`t expect them to get blown out in San Antonio, even if Kawhi Leonard ends up playing. This is a great opportunity for the Hawks and I wouldn`t be surprised if they take a close win.

My tip is Hawks +7 points. Prediction: San Antonio Spurs – Atlanta Hawks 111 – 112.

Pick: Hawks +7
Odds: 1.88 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.04
Event date: 13 March